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Oct 10 - 12:55 PM

TD: US CPI Projections for September

By eFXdata  —  Oct 10 - 10:45 AM

Synopsis: TD Bank forecasts a continued "soft" core-price inflation for September, mirroring the previous month's 0.3% m/m increase. Notable changes are expected in goods inflation and rents inflation. External factors, like airfares and lodging, remain uncertain, but gasoline prices are anticipated to stabilize, keeping headline inflation consistent. These monthly projections translate to yearly rates of 3.6% for total prices and 4.1% for core prices.

Detailed Analysis:

  • Core-Price Inflation: TD projects that core-price inflation for September will likely record a modest increase, consistent with the previous month at 0.3% m/m (or an unrounded 0.26%). This observation marks two consecutive months of "soft" inflationary growth.

  • Goods vs. Rents Inflation: The bank expects no significant change in the inflation rate for goods, staying flat for the month. However, a notable drop is anticipated for rents inflation, although specific figures are not provided.

  • External Factors: Airfares and lodging rates introduce variables into the projection due to their unpredictable nature. They remain key wildcards that could influence the overall inflation numbers for the month.

  • Gasoline Prices: In terms of energy, TD anticipates that the price of gasoline will level out, ensuring a stable headline inflation rate for September.

  • Yearly Projections: Translating the monthly figures to a yearly scale, TD Bank projects a 3.6% y/y increase in total prices and a slightly higher 4.1% y/y increment for core prices.

Conclusion: TD Bank's projections for September's CPI highlight a continuity in the "soft" growth trend from the previous month. However, while some sectors like goods and gasoline prices might remain stable, others like rents inflation are expected to see a drop. The full impact of external factors remains to be seen,.

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary


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