(Corrects headline to "three day high hit")

• NY opened near 1.1525 after pair rallied in Asia and Europe trading hours

• Pair fell toward 1.1495 on US$ buying, firm US yields

• EUR/USD buyers emerged, pair turned positive, 1.1544 traded on EBS

• Halt in US$ buying, softer US yields, gold rally & drop in equities buoyed EUR/USD

• A three session high traded which helped technicals highlight upside risks

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs, hold above 10-DMA, rally after May doji are bull signals

• US weekly claims, May PCE, Fed's Powell's testimony to congress are risks next week
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

MUFG highlights the underperformance of the Japanese yen this week, driven not by domestic policy surprises but by broader geopolitical risks and rising global inflation expectations. Despite the tense backdrop, USD/JPY has moved modestly higher, while overall FX volatility remains subdued.

Key Points:

• JPY Underperformance:
  The yen is the third weakest G10 currency this week, behind only the SEK and NOK, which were hit by dovish central bank rate cuts.

• BoJ Impact Muted:
  The Bank of Japan’s meeting this week contained no major surprises, and policy continuity kept JPY reaction muted.

• Geopolitical Drivers:
  Market attention shifted to rising Middle East tensions—specifically, the Israel-Iran conflict—and the possibility of US military involvement within a two-week horizon. This elevated risk sentiment but didn’t spark a large USD rally.

• USD/JPY Higher on Oil and Yields:
  Rising crude oil prices have added to inflation expectations, supporting US Treasury yields, which pushed USD/JPY higher by just over 1 figure.

• Limited UST & FX Market Reaction:
  Despite the narrative of rising inflation risk, US 2-year yields are flat on the week, suggesting markets are not pricing in a Fed shift. This has limited the scope of yen depreciation.

• Volatility Still Subdued:
  MUFG’s G10 FX Volatility Index inched up to 9.1% but remains below its long-run average (10.2%), highlighting continued investor calm despite geopolitical risks.

Conclusion:

MUFG sees JPY lagging in part due to oil-driven inflation concerns and limited yield curve moves in the US. While geopolitical tensions raise headline risks, the muted reaction in rates and volatility markets keeps USD/JPY trading in a controlled range. Without a sharp move in UST yields, a significant JPY reversal is unlikely.

• NY opened near 0.6490 after AUD/USD rallied overnight, 0.6495 then traded

• Sellers emerged however, AUD/USD turned lower, 0.6452 hit, pair down -0.32% late

• USD/CNH rally off its low helped drive AUD/USD downward

• Pair fell despite equity , yield drops & gold rally toward flat

• AUD/UDS's price action now has technicals highlighting some downside risks

• Daily & monthly inverted hammer candles formed, daily RSI is falling

• AUD/USD's hold below the 10- & 21-DMAs reinforces the bearish signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

BofA cautions that EUR/USD may be entering the latter, more volatile stage of its rally. Historically, the final third of euro uptrends tends to be choppier and more prone to corrections. Technical signals—including bearish momentum divergence and resistance near 1.16—suggest a potential pullback toward 1.1200–1.1065 before resuming higher toward long-term targets in the 1.18–1.20 range.

Key Points:

Late-Stage Rally Dynamics:

• EUR/USD rallies often begin with sharp, directional moves but become choppier in the final phase.

• 2023’s euro rally serves as a model for such behavior.

Bearish Momentum Divergence:

• RSI divergence on the weekly chart is developing, indicating potential weakening in bullish momentum.

• This is a typical precursor to correction or consolidation, even within a broader uptrend.

Resistance at 1.16:

• On the daily chart, EUR/USD was repeatedly offered above 1.16, failing to close above it.

• This signals supply building in the 1.16s, reducing short-term upside momentum.

Summer Correction Risk:

• BofA sees a likely pullback to 1.1200 or even 1.1065, with the latter being the May low.

• A modestly higher low than May could confirm ongoing bullish structure with temporary weakness.

Long-Term View Unchanged:

• Despite short-term caution, BofA maintains a long-term target of 1.18–1.20, anchored by the 200-month SMA.

• Time horizon remains early 2026, with the current period seen as a technical digestion phase.

Conclusion:

BofA warns that EUR/USD may be in the choppier final stage of its rally, with bearish divergence and supply above 1.16 signaling possible summer consolidation. A pullback to 1.1200–1.1065 would be consistent with the pattern and not negate the longer-term bullish trajectory toward 1.20 by early 2026.

GBP/USD is resisting downward pressure as dollar weakness reasserts itself, but sterling needs to chalk up some wins on the charts to regain upward momentum.

The pair has staged a swift rebound from its post-Fed dip to a one-month low of 1.3383, with the greenback slipping on Friday following dovish signals from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Waller told CNBC that a rate cut could be justified by July if inflation remains tame and downplayed the potential inflationary impact of import tariffs — offering a clear contrast to Powell’s tone from Wednesday.

At present, sterling gains are largely riding on dollar softness rather than underlying pound strength. Earlier cable declines were driven by underwhelming UK May retail sales data. Market attention now turns to next week’s dense schedule of MPC appearances, with Governor Andrew Bailey due before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee on Tuesday and Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak Wednesday — events that could recalibrate expectations for the August BoE decision. Market odds are leaning slightly in favor of a rate cut at that meeting.

Though cable has reclaimed much of the ground lost following the Fed meeting, upside momentum is restrained by Middle East tensions and quarter-end portfolio adjustments. A sustained push higher will require a decisive break above 1.3508—representing the 50% retracement from the YTD high—and 1.3518, which marks the June 13 low and aligns with the 21-day moving average. Only then might the pair set its sights on the 1.3633 year-to-date peak.
GBP


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

ANZ maintains a bullish medium-term view on EUR/USD, targeting 1.20, and sees recent headline-driven weakness as transitory. While geopolitical risks—particularly in the Middle East—are weighing on the euro near term, ANZ expects Fed rate cuts and diverging EU-US growth dynamics to support EUR/USD appreciation in the months ahead.

Key Points:

Headline-Driven Volatility:

• Recent EUR downside is primarily a response to geopolitical headlines, especially concerning the Middle East.

• The tail risk of Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz is noted but deemed unlikely to trigger a global energy crisis on the scale of the Ukraine war.

Short-Term Outlook: Volatile but Contained

• ANZ expects EUR/USD to remain volatile and mildly negative in the coming week.

• However, they see this weakness as temporary, not fundamentally driven.

Medium-Term Bullish Drivers:

• Fed expected to begin easing from Q3, reducing USD support.

• Economic momentum is diverging in favor of the Eurozone relative to a slowing US.

• These factors should underpin sustained upside in EUR/USD.

Trade Strategy:

• ANZ recommends using short-term dips in EUR/USD as buying opportunities, with a target of 1.20 and a stop at 1.13.

Conclusion:

ANZ sees short-term EUR/USD weakness as a tactical dip, not a reversal of trend. With Fed cuts approaching and EU-US fundamentals diverging, EUR/USD is expected to move higher over the medium term. Dips below current levels offer attractive entry points for positioning toward a 1.20 target.

• Cable eyes 1.3500 (3-day peak in Asia) after extending north from 1.3463

• 1.3463 was Ldn am low, after pound fell on gloomy UK retail sales data

• Asia peak was scaled after safe-haven USD weakened on Trump's Iran hedge

• White House: Trump to decide on US action in Israel-Iran war within 2 weeks

• 1.3383 was Thursday's one-month low as dollar rose on weekend action risk

• Resistance levels beyond 1.3500 include 1.3518 (June 13 low) and 1.3536

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners down premarket, tracking fall in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold slips 0.4% to $3,356.11/ounce and was down 2.4% on weekly basis

• Gold prices fell and were poised for worst weekly performance in more than one month after Federal Reserve tempered expectations for rate cuts and on temporary easing of concerns about imminent U.S. attack on Iran

• U.S. dollar was up 0.5% this week and poised for its biggest weekly gain in over one month, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies [USD/]

• Top miners Newmont down ~1% and Barrick Gold

down 1.3%

• South African miners Gold Fields down ~1%, Harmony Gold and Sibanye Stillwater each down marginally, AngloGold Ashanti down 1.3%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines down 1.4% and Kinross Gold down 1%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• Nikkei ends lower as uncertainties in M. East conflict weigh

• Japan core infl. hits 2-year high, keeps rate-hike bets alive

• USD/JPY has seen a narrow 145.13-55 range, on Friday, EBS data shows

• Spot traded above the cloud for 1st time since Feb on Thursday

• But it failed to close above the cloud, something bulls need

• The daily cloud currently spans the 144.89-145.55 region

• 30, 60-day log correlations between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY remains high

Daily Chart:


Correlation Chart:

June 20 (Reuters) - The EUR/USD rally is stalling with very little advance seen in the past two months, heightening the appeal of carry trades

The carry isn't huge at roughly 0.5% for the past two months but with little FX risk it is a factor that traders should consider.

While techs remains supportive of this year's rise, there has been a clear slowdown and the pair remains fairly overbought, so unless there is dramatic news to reinvigorate the rally, a slow, and perhaps negligible rise may unfold.

There could be a further slowing in activity over the European summer as traders take a break, and should they bank profits the unwinding of a now substantial $13 billion wager on a rise will provide resistance.

No changes in interest rates are seen from the Federal Reserve, or European Central Bank before October. Futures imply one U.S. rate cut of 25 bps by October, and perhaps no further change in the euro zone interest rate in the remainder of this year.

Stocks are buoyant, which will support riskier investments like those which depend upon interest rates. If the main risk for all markets - conflict in the Middle East - intensifies, the dollar could rise significantly.

Although a carry trade is not intended to benefit from a favourable move in the direction of currencies, a EUR/USD short is an effective way to hedge the risk of a bigger war, and those who hold them will be paid while they wait to see what happens.
EURUSD and forward swap

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• While tech remain supportive the EUR/USD rise is stretched

• The top of 20-day Bollingers is 1.1596, 20-month 1.1477

• Traders are betting heavily on bigger gains

• Overbought situation and longs provide much restraint on EUR/USD rising

• Dips may limited to base daily BB at 1.1284 but pullback likely

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable dips to 1.3481 after much worse than expected UK May retail sales data

• Down 2.7% MM vs minus 0.5% forecast; down 1.3% YY vs up 1.7% forecast

• 1.3500 was Asia high, after safe-haven USD weakened on Trump's Iran hedge

• White House: Trump to decide on US action in Israel-Iran war within 2 weeks

• 1.3383 = 1-mth low 24 hrs ago as safe-haven USD rose on weekend action risk

• Trump says Fed rates should be 2.5 percentage points lower

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Saturn Metals jump as much as 17.7% to A$0.40, highest level since late-April 2022

• Stock logs biggest intraday pct gain since December 18, 2024

• STN up 11.8% at A$0.38, as of 0433 GMT

• Gold explorer says it has discovered thick & high-grade gold at Apollo Hill Heap Leach Gold project in Western Australia (WA)

• Near 2.3 mln shares change hands, 3x its 30-day average of 768,839 shares

• Stock up 65.9% YTD, including session's gains

(Reporting by Anjali Singh in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY eased back into its Ichimoku cloud, Asia range 145.13-55 EBS

• Daily Ichimoku cloud between 144.88-145.55 today, thin, sideways

• Follows peek above cloud to 145.77 yesterday in holiday-thinned trading

• USD/JPY managing to stay above 144.88-89 ascending hourly cloud

• Also ascending 100 and 200-HMAs also below at 144.92, 144.61

• Option expiries to help contain spot? Large @145.00, massive @146.00

• No fireworks at Gotobi, pre-weekend Tokyo fix, exporter-importer flows small

• USD seen remaining relatively bid for now on on-going Middle East tensions

• JPY crosses mostly buoyant after slew of as expected central bank stances

• EUR/JPY 167.24-34 EBS, very quiet, despite ECB Villeroy dovish talk

• Large E952 mln option expiries today providing anchor of sorts

• GBP/JPY 195.54-196.03 following as expected BoE hold yesterday

• AUD/JPY 93.97-94.34 and still holding between 93.37 100-HMA, 96.06 200-HMA

• Related comment , also , on Japan CPI

• Comment on BOJ , minutes , MOF-speak

• ECB Villeroy , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD peaks at 0.64935 Fri (+0.7% from overnight 0.6446 low)

• Pair recoils from hourly upper Bollinger band, returns mid-range

• Middle East war escalation and geopolitical uncertainty remains key theme

• Trump's two-week go/no go Iran deadline pauses safe haven USD buying for now

• Support 0.6445-50, break below 0.6425 200-DMA would accelerate move lower

• Very little AU economic data ahead crucial May CPI due later next week

• Range early Asia 0.6464-935, support 0.6445-50 0.6390, resistance 0.6550-55
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Shares of Odyssey Gold fall 17.4% to A$0.019, set for their worst intraday drop since late July, 2024

• Gold explorer to raise A$4 mln ($2.59 mln) at issue price of A$0.018 per share

• Issue price represents a discount of 21.7% to the last close

• Around 1.7 mln shares change hands, vs the 30-day average of 831,236 shares

• Stock up 5.6% this year, including the day's move

($1 = 1.5420 Australian dollars)
(Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru)

• +0.1% after closing up 0.35% with the USD off 0.15% on the U.S. holiday

• Bank of England held rates at 4.25%, but are wary of higher energy prices

• UK rates on a 'gradual downward path' - largely as expected - muted response

• British consumer morale ticks up but the Middle East conflict clouds outlook

• Charts - 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages, crest/fall, momentum studies, ease

• 21-day Bolli bands contract - the daily signals retain a net negative bias

• 1.3517 21-day moving average and Tuesday's 1.3577 top are first resistances

• 1.3415 lower 21-day Bolli and 1.3386 0.5% May/June rise resilient support

• 1.3386 0.5%, and 1.3328 0.618% of the May-June rise are next Fibo supports
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• +0.05% in Asia after closing up 0.15% with the U.S. dollar off 0.15%

• As war and tariffs fog the outlook, some European central banks trim rates

• EU increasingly resigned to 10% baseline tariff in US trade talks - sources

• Charts - daily momentum studies slip, 10 & 21-day moving averages rise

• 21-day Bollinger bands contract - daily charts retain a modest topside bias

• 1.1435 21-day moving average, then the 1.1372 June 6 base, initial support

• Wednesday's 1.1530 top, then last week's 1.1632 2025 high, first resistance

• A close below 1.1436 21-DMA would end the May/June topside bias

• 1.1450 1.056 BLN, 1.1500 3.234 BLN 1.1520 1.071 BLN close June 20 strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD recovers 0.6% from Thur 0.6446 low in very thin US holiday trading

• Safe haven USD buying amid Middle East war escalation on pause for now

• Iran gets temporary reprieve as Trump indicates two-week go/no go deadline

• Support 0.6445-50, break below 0.6425 200-DMA would accelerate move lower

• Scant AU economic data ahead critical May CPI due later next week

• Overnight range 0.6446-83, support 0.6445-50 0.6390, resistance 0.6550-55
AUD Daily 200-DMA & Daily DXY


AUD Hourly

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Cable meets headwind at 1.3450 after rallying off 1.3405

• 1.3405 was low as pound dipped on 6-3 MPC rate hold vote; 7-2 was forecast

• More offers expected around 1.3475 (Wednesday's high was 1.3476)

• 1.3383 was early Ldn one-month low as Trump-Iran risk buoyed safe-haven USD

• Next BoE rate decision is on August 7, when most economists expect a cut

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has risen from 144.75 to 145.77, on Thursday, EBS data shows

• Dollar has the potential to stage a bigger recovery, generally

• Spot has broken above the cloud, that currently spans 144.89-145.55 region

• However, the latest break above the cloud could be a trap

• Those that are bullish USD/JPY need a Thursday close above the cloud top

• 30, 60-day log correlations between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY remains high

Daily Chart:

• Cable falls to 1.3405 on 6-3 MPC rate hold vote; 7-2 vote was expected

• BoE's Ramsden joined external doves Taylor and Dhingra in voting for cut

• 1.3437 was Ldn am high (pre-BoE MPA), vs early Ldn one-month low of 1.3383

• Most economists expect BoE to cut rates at its next meeting in August

• Fed is expected to deliver a fifth consecutive rate hold in July

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable runs into resistance at 1.3434 after extending north from 1.3383

• 1.3434 was pre-Fed low Wednesday. 1.3383 was early London one-month low

• BoE is expected to leave Bank Rate at 4.25% at 1100 GMT; 7-2 MPC vote likely

• Consensus forecast among economists is for BoE to cut rates in August

• Pound might therefore strengthen on relatively hawkish hold from BoE today

• GBP/USD obstacles beyond 1.3434 include 1.3476 (Wednesday high) and 1.35

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY has risen from 144.75 to 145.41, on Thursday, EBS data shows

• USD up as Mideast worries rise, Powell flags inflation risks

• The daily cloud, that currently spans the 144.89-145.55 region, weighs

• If there is a break above the cloud, that could prove key

• However, a failure break above the cloud could hint at a top

• 30, 60-day log correlations between USD/JPY, EUR/JPY remains high

Daily Chart: