The larger-than-forecast drop in U.S. initial jobless claims nL1N2II2LR isn't helping the dollar, which leaves USD/JPY on track to fall to Friday's 103.835 EBS low after large 104 expiries at 10:00ET.
The dollar index is making multi-year lows, forcing USD/JPY, as the second biggest component of the index, lower as well.
Friday's 103.835 low is also the 161.8% Fibo-projected low off yesterday's 104.75-104.40 drop.
It's in play again after the daily tenkan at 104.22, that held Wednesday's low and today's lows until New York opened, gave way.
That comes after Wednesday's 104.75 high was rejected by last week's 104.76 high.
If prices break last week's 103.685 low, the string of four higher weekly lows will also have been broken, signaling resumption of the downtrend since March following a period of consolidation to reset oversold weekly RSIs.
The ISM non-manufacturing report also hits at 10:00 today and may be a catalyst.
Hourly charts are already deeply oversold, so a corrective bounce off 103.83 or 103.68 is possible, but the tenkan at 104.22 would then be favored as a fade point on the way to retesting November's 103.18 nadir.
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