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Jul 29 - 01:55 PM

USD/JPY - Has Worst Week In Two Years, Major Top If June's Post-Fed Lows Go

By Randolph Donney  —  Jul 29 - 12:05 PM

  • USD/JPY down 1.9% this week after Fed's second 75bp rate hike

  • Spec longs already under duress with biggest weekly drop in 2 years

  • But more so with prices now below pre-June 15 Fed hike levels

  • Longs were premised on further Fed hikes, but hikes inverted yld curve

  • Fri's 132.505 low well below 50-DMA prop at 134.28, then bounce to 134.60

  • Bounced on U.S. data, Bostic that briefly lifted Tsy yields nL1N2ZA17B

  • But sellers were waiting just ahead of Friday's 134.675 high on EBS

  • The 50% Fibo of 126.37-139.38 post-May Fed hike range at 132.875 breached

  • Rest of spec longs at risk if post-June Fed hike low at 131.39 is lost

  • That low also by 61.8% of the May-July rise to 24-yr highs at 131.34

  • Weekly charts are flashing bearish divergence top signals

  • Tenkan probed at 133.12, kijun miles below at 126.77 near May's lows

  • Two-yr Tsy-JGB yields by July lows. July US data may not help nL1N2ZA1ID

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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