First appeared on eFXplus on Apr 10 - 09:39 AM
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses the US earnings expectations for 1Q.
"S&P 500 1Q19 earnings season kicks off this week. 1Q expectations have been reset dramatically: bottom-up consensus EPS has been cut by 7% over the last three months (to $37.29), more than double the typical 3% pre-EPS season cut. The good news: in prior quarters of similarly dramatic cuts, EPS beat expectations in all instances, by an average of 3%. Consensus expectations imply EPS of -2% YoY, which would mark the first EPS decline since the EPS recession of 2015-16. We forecast $38.25, suggesting flat growth and a 3% beat. Analyst estimates have fallen the most within Energy (by 30%) over the last three months, while Materials and Tech have also seen large cuts (16% and 8%)," BofAML projects.
"Expect better results up the cap spectrum: while large caps are likely to avoid an "earnings recession", small caps may not: smaller stocks are expected to see a double-digit earnings decline this quarter, and continue to have weaker estimate revision and guidance trends. Overall for US equities, management's outlooks are likely to serve as a key catalyst for the market this earnings season," BofAML adds.
BofA Merrill Lynch Research/Market Commentary