By eFXdata — Aug 23 - 09:30 AM
Societe Generale Research sees a scope for a pause in the USD rally in the near-term.
"US equity futures are turning back up and today could yet see an attempt at ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ – if the Treasury market has discounted enough for now. The US rates market prices 3.75% peak Fed Funds, and while that may well be pushed to 4%, that probably demands both a hawkish/resolute Fed message from Jay Powell on Friday, and perhaps a push from ISM/NFP/CPI data in the coming weeks," SocGen notes.
"Maybe, all in all, the dollar rally has run about as far as it can on the current news. That’s not to say Europe’s energy woes, China’s economic weakness and policy easing, and US jobs/inflation data can’t send it further, but be careful when reading that buying the dollar is ‘the easiest trade in FX’," SocGen adds.
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary