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TDUX
Oct 22 - 10:55 PM
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USD/JPY - Mini-Perfect Storm Sends USD/JPY Down 3 Big Figures

By Haruya Ida  —  Oct 22 - 09:37 PM

Oct 23 (Reuters) - A mini perfect storm of a Nikkei selloff, option expiries, exporter sales and BOJ expectations sent USD/JPY down three big figures Thursday - from 158.25 early to 156.69 on EBS by the New York close.

USD/JPY is weakening further in early-Asia trading Friday, falling from 156.82 to 156.08 before steadying. The drop stopped just shy of the base of the 156.05-158.44 daily Ichimoku cloud and 156.00 big figure. No doubt a break below both will cue more downside.

Helping to fuel the decline into Friday has been growing concerns with AI-related stocks. Thursday's 2.6% collapse of NASDAQ reflects this. With Japanese equities also feeling the heat, foreign investors are paring some of their holdings, and unwinding related currency hedges, leading to yen buys.

Also accelerating the USD/JPY slide was paring of positions and gamma-related plays linked to massive option expiries. A total of $3.1 bln between 156.70-97, $9.1 bln on the 157 handle, $8.3 bln between 158.00-75 and $3.3 bln between 159.00-40 expired yesterday.

Holders of yen calls/US dollar puts reaped enormous gains whilst sellers were forced into massive yen purchases. Large option expiries are slated for Friday too, including $2.1 bln between 154.95-155.00 below and $1.5 bln at 157.00 above.

Japanese exporters, for their part, will continue to sell into any USD/JPY rallies to hedge forward receivables as has been the case since the summer .

Expectations are also high for a hawkish hold at the Bank of Japan's October 29-30 meetings . The government will likely argue for no action at this meeting . That said, higher inflation down the line should would make such a move inevitable . Related , also ..



USD/JPY:


Nikkei 225:


BOJ policy rate:


(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Ewen Chew)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
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