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May 05 - 08:55 AM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-History Is Not On The Side Of AUD/USD Gains In May

By Martin Miller  —  May 05 - 06:55 AM

Historically, AUD/USD tends to fall in May.
A seasonality study of AUD/USD's performance for each May since 2000 shows it has dropped in 14 of the past 22 years, or 64% of the time.

AUD/USD seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but it becomes more useful when combined with other factors.

While AUD/USD has made a strong recovery this week, these gains have been limited at 0.7267 which is ahead of the 0.7272 Fibonacci level, a 38.2% retrace of the 0.7661 to 0.7131 (April to May) drop.
Sustained trading under this technical level should keep the risk of a slump alive.

FX traders should be mindful that Australia's open and export-heavy economy is vulnerable to global risk aversion.
Global equity markets were still on the charge on Thursday on relief that the biggest hike in U.S. interest rates in more than two decades hadn't been even sharper. nL2N2WX0ICnL3N2WX05K However new bouts of risk aversion could hurt AUD/USD.

For more click on FXBUZ

AUD/USD Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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