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Nov 12 - 05:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Strategy For This Year And Next

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Nov 12 - 03:50 AM

The prudent strategy this year remains to bet against moves towards the outside of the 1.16-20 EUR/USD range, but it's also wise to prepare for a break higher next year.

EUR/USD has been range-bound for months and a strategy to counter trade moves towards 1.16 or 1.20 is being rewarded.
Two events may spark near-term volatility: the Dec.
10 European Central Bank meeting and the end of the year.
With traders long, both events pose downside risk, but those risks are fading. nL1N2HY0JY

The number of spec longs, which stalled EUR/USD's rise, has been pared and although a bigger reduction is likely, further adjustment is unlikely to push EUR/USD too far beyond the current range and will lay foundations for a rally.

That rise could be substantial.
Months of sideways trading have unfolded near the peak of a big rise.
That's bullish.
The trend is solid and traders have managed profitable long positions near the highs.
Profitable bets are usually re-established, the fuel for next year's rise. nL1N2HX0IT

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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