Standard Chartered entered long EUR/USD from 1.1090 this week, looking for 1.1500, with a stop at 1.0950.
It cites the prospect of a partial U.S.-China trade deal, a market-friendly Federal Reserve, a robust U.S. economy and, to a lesser degree, the easing of hard Brexit risk.
To generate stronger USD selling against G10, StanChart thinks, non-U.S.
growth needs to show signs of recovery.
That could come from two catalysts in Europe – the conclusion of Brexit and potential fiscal expansion.
Shorter term, they also note improved European PMI data and German factory orders.
Other near-term drivers are European bank stocks, which have rebounded since the European Central Bank announced tiering, boosting credit creation.
If a U.S.-China deal is signed, USD/CNH will probably head lower, nudging USD into a general decline, based on the strong relationship between the EUR and CNH in recent years.
Recent option flows have also been aware of EUR/USD upside risk nL2N27K08Z, but massive 1.10-1.12 long gamma shackles pair for now nL2N27M095.
EUR=EBS: Click here