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By Paul Spirgel  —  May 20 - 04:14 PM
  • USD IMM net spec Fell in May 11-17 period as the $IDX dipped 0.61%

  • EUR$ +0.24% in period, specs bottom-fish add 3,810 contracts to long

  • Yen net short -8,145 to -102,309 contracts; $JPY -0.85% in period

  • GBP specs +357 contracts now -79,241; GBP$ rose 1.47% in period

  • AUD, CAD, kiwi specs sold in period; AUD short now 2,928, CAD -14,496

  • Bitcoin specs buying recent dip, +103 contracts now long 806; BTC -3% in period


IMM Position Table as of MAy 17: Click here

Majors w/IMM Perf as of May 17: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 20 - 03:00 PM

The dollar index headed toward the close up 0.24% on Friday, benefiting from risk aversion as an early stocks rally on the heels of China's unexpectedly large Loan Prime Rate cut unraveled and investors reverted to fears that the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign could trigger a global downturn.

As risk gains evaporated heading toward the New York close, stocks and bond yields were mired near their lows.

EUR/USD fell 0.37% to 1.0545, as growth concerns competed for investors' attention with hawkish ECB comments telegraphing rate hikes.

ECB hike odds, as per ECBWATCH on Eikon, slipped to 38% -- from 50% earlier this week -- for a +10bp hike in June, but rates markets still foresee 35bps worth of hikes by the July 21 meeting.

The firm July rate-hike pricing kept EUR/USD above this year's low of 1.0349 hit on May 13.

USD/JPY hovered near flat at 127.85, sliding from earlier highs after haven yen buyers entered the market.

With inflation at 1.2%, well below the BoJ’s target, Japanese rate hikes remain unlikely, keeping downward pressure on the yen as other central banks increase borrowing costs, though growing global recession risks may temper the currency's fall.

GBP/USD received a boost from above-forecast retail sales.

Sterling bulls initially lifted the pound after the data beat but ran into resistance at 1.2500, just below Thursday’s 1.2523 high, which was put in after UK CBI orders matched recent highs.

The recent upbeat data tempered UK recession expectations, which may limit the fall in BoE rate-hike expectations.

Bitcoin and ether fell near 5% as the Fed’s inflation-fighting rhetoric and reduced liquidity sapped cryptos of vigor.
BTC was flirting with support at the May 14 low by 28.56k.
A close below 28.56k would put this year's low of $25.4k, struck on May 12, in focus.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 20 - 01:35 PM
  • Sterling ending Noram near flat at 1.2470, NorAm range 1.2500-1.2452

  • Risk rise after China rate move unravels; marts wary of slowing growth

  • UK ret sales beat highlights potential bullish sterling shift nL2N2XC10Q

  • Upbeat UK orders, retail sales data reduces UK recession fears

  • Bulls cling to 21-DMA supt by 1.2453, below target 10-DMa at 1.2345

  • Res at Friday high 1.2500, Thursday high 1.2523; abv 30-DMA 1.2630 targeted

  • Bulls gain momentum above 1.2652, 50% Fib of 1.3147-1.2156

  • EUR/GBP -0.32% at 0.8462, Fri range 0.8496-50; glbl growth fears more pronounced for low rate EUR

GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 20 - 12:17 PM

MUFG Research the USD outlook and maintains a bullish bias over the coming weeks.

"The USD has corrected lower over the past week with weakness broadbased. It follows strong gains in recent months that have resulted in another period of exceptional USD strength. We are not convinced yet that there has been a significant shift in fundamentals to justify a sustained reversal lower for the USD," MUFG notes. 

"Many of the drivers behind USD strength remain in place including a Fed that is still committed to faster policy tightening, and more acute downside risks to growth outside of the US. While we do expect both of these drivers to turn less supportive for the USD later this year, we believe it is premature for the USD to have already peaked out," MUFG adds. 

MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  May 20 - 11:40 AM
  • USD/CAD firms into Europe close +0.17% at 1.2842; Fri range 1.2845-1.2777

  • CAD bulls shrug off oil rise, early risk rally reversed; USTs, stox hit

  • Global recovery remains at risk owing to high inflation, USD, UST havens bid

  • $CAD tether to 21-DMA (1.2864) intact, cls abv targets 10-DMA by 1.2918

  • USD bulls lose vigor, bears gain momentum below 1.2768, 50% of 1.2450-1.3077

  • Below 50% Fib 55-DMA at 1.2709, daily cloud top 1.2652 in sharper focus

  • Risk tumult aside, US, CA rate outlooks similar, both show +190bp to YE 2022

CAD Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 20 - 11:00 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research sees a limited scope for EUR downside in the near-term.

"Focus next week will be on the Eurozone PMIs and the German ifo for the month of May. More evidence that the Eurozone business sentiment gauges in particular continue to point at relative robust economic expansion from here could help ease further the worst of market recession fears. The data could further allow the ECB to focus on the task of bringing inflation under control and the speeches by a number of Governing Council members should confirm that," CACIB notes. 

"We further continue to expect that, as part of the policy normalisation, the ECB will emphasize rate hikes and thus help stabilise the EUR by keeping its short-term fair value supported," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  May 20 - 10:05 AM
  • Two daily dojis in place the last two trading sessions, implies indecision

  • Investors are taking a break as key support near 127.00 is approaching

  • Daily RSI is rising but other technical signals highlight downside risks

  • The 10-DMA has crossed below the 21-DMA, likely a downside signal

  • Monthly RSI falling after diverging on the new high set onMay 9th

  • Should support near 127.00 break stop loss selling likely takes hold

  • Shorts then target supports near 125.10, daily cloud top, 123.95/124.05

  • For more click on FXBUZ

usdjpy Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 20 - 09:35 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses its expectations for the ECB June policy meeting.

"We are waiting for the long-overdue ECB hawkish pivot in June, but we are not sure it will be enough to support the EUR. The market is already pricing the end of ECB QE in June, then 4 hikes this year and almost 4 more next year. Our economists agree with the market for this year, but expect only 2 hikes next year. With Eurozone headline and core inflation at all-time highs, and unemployment at an all-time low, we believe it will take much more for the ECB's monetary policy stance to turn tight, and even more to be tight enough to bring inflation down to the target" BofA notes. 

"We don't expect the ECB to try to talk the EUR up. In our view, the weak EUR is the symptom of the ECB's excessively loose monetary policies, rather than the cause of high inflation. In any case, the weak EURUSD reflects more USD strength than EUR weakness,"BofA adds. 

CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  May 20 - 07:25 AM
  • China cuts benchmark reference rate for mortgages nL2N2XC033, buoys risk

  • USD/CNH nears 6.6700, equitiesESv1, copper HGv1, iron-ore DCIOc2 rally

  • Safe-havens US$, yen lower vs most majors, AUD/JPY rallies toward 90.70

  • AUD/USD dip in Asia to 0.7003 was bought, trades 0.7073 in Europe's a.m.

  • NY opens near 0.7065, pair slides slightly as US$ firms a bit in early NY

  • Techs lean bullish; 21-DMA pierced, daily RSI rises, daily bull hammer forms

  • AUD/USD longs need break above May 9 daily high to take greater control

  • For more click on FXBUZ

audusd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  May 20 - 05:45 AM

Sterling could become a victim of the central banks' battle against inflation as they attempt to fight price pressures and risk sending economies into recession while shaping interest rate differentials.

The U.S. situation is fairly transparent and the market appears comfortable with the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
It's a different situation in Europe with fragile economies, rising inflation and uncertainty surrounding central bank plans.

The EUR and GBP are losing the battle against the dollar, with 16% and 14% falls respectively since early 2021.
Sterling could be the more vulnerable from hereon in as UK inflation hits 9% in April and consumer confidence falls to a record low in May.
The Bank of England's economic projections suggest aggressive rate hikes will push the UK into recession.

A slowing of the BoE hiking cycle while the ECB starts hiking will favour the EUR as the interest rate margin narrows.

EUR/GBP's recovery from this week's 0.8395 low has potential to record a weekly hammer candle, which could bode well for the EUR next week as the central banks attempt to set a credible policy course.

For more click on FXBUZ

EUR/GBP weekly candle chart: Click here

EUR/GBP daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 20 - 04:45 AM
  • EUR/GBP falls to 0.8465 following April's positive UK retail sales number

  • Up 1.4% month-on-month vs -0.2% f/c nL5N2XC0ZP. 0.8465 = intra-day low

  • 0.8496 was three-day high in Asia (before the UK retail sales data)

  • 0.8395 was 2-week low Tuesday, before hawkish Knot lifted euro nA5N2W500H

  • Money markets price in 50% chance of 50 bps July ECB hike nL5N2XC1D9

  • BoE's Pill sees need for further interest rate rises nL5N2XC1I0

EURGBP Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 20 - 03:50 AM
  • USD/JPY based in the midst of risk aversion thought driving its decline

  • USD/JPY based as soon as it reached oversold territory nL2N2XB12I

  • Pair has subsequently jumped back over 128.00 (128.21 EBS in Tokyo)

  • Today was Gotobi day with Japanese firms buying dollars

  • The drop towards 127 may be the foundation for a run to new highs

  • Should pair exceed 130.57 a run towards 150 may ensue

  • USD/JPY rebound is likely a leading indicator for other USD pairs

  • Due SNB policy USD/CHF is a prime candidate to follow USD/JPY higher

  • Related commentary nL2N2XC0CXnL2N2XC0BC

USDJPY Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  May 20 - 03:25 AM
  • EUR/USD has rallied 1.0349-1.0642 EBS in past week, last 1.0576

  • The pair fell 1.2266-1.0349 after taper talk emerged

  • Bounce far from minimum objective for a tech correction of that drop

  • The bounce occurred because the sell-off was stretched

  • EUR/USD was trading deep below 20-month Bollingers. Base is 1.0638

  • Traders were long before the bounce which may encourage them to add

  • Expect downside pressure to build ahead the next Fed hike on Jun 15

  • Once oversold conditions are alleviated EUR/USD should drop again

EURUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  May 20 - 03:10 AM
  • Thursday's daily close above 1.0546 Fibo has negated the recent "bull trap"

  • 1.0546 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 1.1185 to 1.0349 recent drop

  • 14-day momentum turned positive, reinforcing the shift in risk to the upside

  • The kijun line at 1.0643 -- midpoint of last 26 days -- could be a hurdle

  • We are short at 1.0555 for losses, our stop is above the kijun line

  • A break above the kijun line would likely unlock further gains

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous bullets on "bull trap" nL2N2XB0CU

Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  May 20 - 02:20 AM
  • Cable climbs to 1.2493 on much better than expected UK April retail sales

  • Up 1.4% MM vs -0.2% f/c nS8N2W30BI. 1.2493 = intra-day high

  • 1.2532 was Thursday's two-week high, as lower UST yields weighed on USD

  • See: nL2N2XB247. 1.2438 = ensuing low (1.2438 was Thursday's Ldn am high)

  • BoE chief economist Pill due to speak in Wales at 0730 GMT nL2N2XB11C

  • If Fed has to choose, markets could get much uglier nL8N2AZ61B

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 19 - 11:45 PM
  • EUR/USD opened +1.19% # 1.0585 after USD broadly fell on US growth concerns nL2N2XB247

  • It drifted lower in Asia as USD clawed back some ground

  • EUR/USD traded to 1.0555 and is around 1.0560 into the afternoon

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 1.0546, which had been stiff resistance

  • More support at the 10-day MA at 1.0498 and break would ease upward pressure

  • Resistance is at the 38.2 of the 1.1185/1.0349 move at 1.0668

  • EUR/USD stopped trending lower and will likely consolidate in a range

  • More short-covering possible if US yields continue to move lower

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 19 - 04:30 PM

Danske Research maintains a bearish bias on EUR/CHF over the medium-term.

"EUR/CHF fell sharply to 1.0340 on the back of hawkish comments from SNB governor Thomas Jordan. Jordan highlighted that the SNB is ready to act if inflation pressures continue and sees elevated risk of second round effects. This is well in line with our call of the SNB set to gradually follow the ECB in respect to monetary policy tightening," Danske notes. 

"We continue to forecast EUR/CHF to move lower, forecasting the cross at 1.01 in 6M," Danske adds. 

Danske Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 19 - 11:30 PM
  • AUD/USD opened +1.32% at 0.7047 after USD fell on US growth concerns nL2N2XB247

  • It came under pressure in early Asia due to Tokyo AUD/JPY selling

  • Risk assets in Asia rallied on the back of China LPR cut nL2N2XC046

  • The AXJ index moved 1.2% higher while Dalian iron ore rose 3.0%

  • Despite those rallies the AUD/USD fell to a session low at 0.7009

  • Heading into the afternoon the AUD/USD is trading around 0.7015

  • USD broadly moved higher, but AUD fell against all major currencies

  • Support is at the 10-day MA at 0.6964 and break shifts pressure to downside

  • Resistance is at the 21-day MA at 0.7050 and close above would be bullish

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 19 - 09:20 PM
  • AUD/USD traded as low as 0.7019 after Tokyo sold AUD/JPY in early trading

  • AUD/JPY rose 1.0% yesterday and is down 0.30% this morning on profit taking

  • AUD/USD completed a bearish outside day Wed and bullish outside day Thurs

  • High volatility and mixed signals hurting bulls and bears

  • A close above the 21-day MA at 0.7051 would suggest more upside

  • Support is at the 10-day MA at 0.6966 and break would ease upward pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  May 19 - 07:55 PM

  • Steady after closing up 1.2%, as popular long USD positions took profit

  • Soft U.S. data fuelled growth fears, Fed may trigger recession nL2N2XB2QN

  • EU exploring ways to use Russian oligarchs' frozen assets to rebuild Ukraine

  • EU to fast track EU membership and Ukraine political reforms nL2N2XB30H

  • Charts; momentum studies rise, 5, 10 and 21 day moving averages conflict

  • 21 day Bolli bands contract - neutral setup but key resistance was broken

  • Close above 1.0547 21 day moving average ends the downside bias

  • Targets a test of the falling 1.0735 upper 21 day Bollinger band

    For more click on FXBUZ

eur May 20 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 19 - 07:20 PM
  • EUR/USD opens +1.19% after large long USD positions liquidated

  • Fears of a slowing US economy pushed US yields lower and scaled back hawkish Fed outlook nL2N2XB247

  • EUR/USD closed above the 21-day MA (1.0547) to shift pressure to the upside

  • Price action validates support at long-term double-bottom at 1.0340/50

  • Resistance comes in at the May 5 high at 1.0643 and 55-day MA at 1.0794

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 1.0547 and the 10-day MA at 1.0500

  • Central bank expectations likely to drive EUR/USD price action

  • EUR/USD rally coincides with a hawkish tilt in ECB expectations nL2N2XB0R2

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  May 19 - 06:40 PM
  • AUD/USD opens +1.32% after USD broadly weakened and base metals rallied nL2N2XB26V

  • AUD outperformed and gained against every major currency except the NZD

  • FX market shrugged off equity market weakness to buy risk currencies

  • AUD underpinned by rise in base metals on China optimism nL2N2XB0J0

  • AUD/USD short-covering featured as investors took profit in long USD positions

  • AUD/USD edged above the 21-day MA (0.7067 Thursday) but closed below

  • The 21-day MA descends to 0.7052 and close above would be bullish

  • A close above the 21-day MA targets the 38.2 of 0.7661/0.6829 at 0.7146

  • Support is at the 10-day MA at 0.6967 and break eases upward pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  May 19 - 03:00 PM

Barclays Research discusses CHF outlook and adopts a bullish bias on CHF in the near-term.

"We expect EURCHF to trade at the lower end of its recent range near term, as global risk aversion increases with three of the world’s biggest economies facing increased growth risks, for different reasons," Barclays notes. 

"Last week’s CHF6.5bn increase is a notable jump from previous weeks’ average additions of CHF1-2bn. However, more forceful SNB intervention is only likely to slow but not reverse any CHF appreciation, especially as EURCHF remains at the higher end of its recent 1.02 – 1.05 range," Barclays adds. 

Barclays Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  May 19 - 02:25 PM

The dollar fell on Thursday, tracking Treasury yields lower on the growing conviction that Fed rate hike pricing peaked after the May 4 FOMC meeting, while data produced more signs that the U.S. economy's frothy pandemic recovery has crested.

Treasury yields slipped since last week's 2-year and 10-year peaks were capped close to 2018's prior Fed tightening cycle highs.

An unexpected rise in jobless claims, another disappointing regional Fed update and more evidence of housing market stress nL2N2XB0YA added to dollar weakness.

Driving the dollar index's roughly 1% dive, was EUR/USD more than 1% gains as 2-year Bund-Treasury yield spreads dropped to their lowest since mid-March, when the index was trading roughly 5% lower than now nL2N2XB1KR.
ECB meeting accounts nF9N2UZ01X reinforced the pricing in of more rate hikes from July.

The deeply oversold EUR/USD's failure last week to break 2017's low and the STXE 600 index outperforming the S&P 500 index since the FOMC meeting are also fostering EUR/USD's recovery nL2N2XB1KR toward May's post-FOMC high at 1.0642.

Sterling was up 1.3%, aided by record growth in UK manufacturer orders and a rebound in export orders in May nL5N2XB33G, but has made little progress above Tuesday and Wednesday's high by 1.2500 due to doubts about BoE rate hiking potential beyond what's been priced in nL2N2XB13B.

The risk-sensitive USD/JPY lost 0.5%, with deeper losses averted after prices bottomed at 127.03 on EBS by important support.
Its breakdown below the 30-DMA and kijun that caught last week's dive was also cut short by the trend-setting Nasdaq index finding support at last week's low and 50% Fibo of the entire 2020-22 pandemic range.

Nonetheless, USD/JPY's 14.5%, spec and Fed-led March-May bull run looks over and rebounds a chance for longs to lighten up and for prices to trend lower still nL2N2XB1AZ.

Ukraine war fallout fears may ease somewhat based on Russia's claim that half Gazprom's clients have opened accounts to buy gas in rubles ahead of the May 20 deadline nL2N2XB0MT.

There's also hope Chinese reopenings from zero-COVID lockdowns could ease pressure on the economy and supply chains.

Aussie's 1.4% gain got a boost from China hopes, higher commodity prices and a bullish miss from Australian jobs data, with full-time jobs surging while part-time jobs fell nAZN048OZA.

USD/CNH fell 0.87% in line with the dollar's broader yield spread led pullback.

Bitcoin and ether recovered most of Wednesday's slides, but are both still trying to build bases after April-May plunges tainted by unstable stablecoins and stocks.

Friday features Japan's core inflation forecast at 2.1% y/y from 0.8%, though not enough to end BOJ yield curve control, and UK retail sales forecast up 0.2% m/m.
There's no U.S. data to speak of, with the focus shifting toward next Friday's payrolls report.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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