By eFXdata — May 15 - 10:45 AM
📈 U-Mich Survey Challenges Bearish USD Consensus 🤔
SocGen points out that Friday's U-Mich long-term inflation expectations survey is the latest data to challenge market pricing of Fed rate cuts, which in turn challenges the overwhelmingly bearish USD consensus and positioning. Despite spec futures market remaining very long EUR/USD, the trend of narrowing EU-US rate differentials has stagnated.
💰EUR Fundamental Cheapness: A Slow Correction 🐢
Europe's biggest support comes from it being fundamentally cheap, and the dollar being fundamentally expensive. However, this implies that the correction will likely be slow and come with low volatility. While this won't prevent losses, it may make them less frustrating.
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary