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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
Oct 17 - 08:36 AM
AUD/USD - Helped To Four-Week Peak By Short-Covering
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 17 - 06:15 AM
  • AUD/USD hits 0.6830 after shorts cover on the break through 0.6810

  • 0.6830 is a four-week peak. 0.6810 was last Friday's high (Oct 11)

  • Ascent through 0.6810 spurred by lower risk of RBA rate cut on Nov 5

  • See: nL2N27206U. RBA expectations shift followed Aussie jobs data

  • See: nL3N2710VJ. 0.6752 was Asian session low (pre-Aussie jobs data)

AUDUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 17 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-ECB And Fed Are Big Risk Blips On EUR/USD Options Radar
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 17 - 05:00 AM

One-week option expiry is now 10 a.m.
New York cut on October 24, so it captures next Thursday's European Central Bank rate decision.
Implied vols are higher in EUR-related pairs to highlight the volatility risk.
One-week EUR/USD vol has jumped from 5.25 to 6.75, which is a 20-pip addition to its premium/break-even -- now 83 pips.
It jumped a similar amount when it first captured the Sept.
12 ECB, which proved justified given the subsequent EUR/USD reaction after the central bank decision.
EUR/USD traded a 1.0927-1.1087 range that day and saw one-week vol reach highs around 9.0 before dropping below 5.0.
The two-week EUR/USD implied vol also rose from 5.5 to 6.25 today, with that expiry now capturing the Oct.
30 Federal Reserve rate decision.
Markets are currently pricing an 85% chance the Fed will cut rates another 0.25% after September's cut to 1.75%-2.0%.
EUR/USD is on alert for more gains, but options expect them to remain a grind before the central bank meetings nL2N272069.










EURUSD 1-2-week vols: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 17 - 06:12 AM
EUR/USD - Gains To Remain A Grind - According To Options
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 17 - 04:05 AM
  • EUR/USD options have been leaning toward a firmer spot for some time

  • However, they saw a peak by 1.1100, certainly pre ECB/FED nL2N26U05H

  • Risk reversals have edged higher for EUR calls - now 0.25 in 1-month

  • 0.25 is the implied vol premium charged for the right to buy vs sell EUR/USD

  • Clearly shows growing upside risk, but one must look at implied vols too

  • They remain at the low end of long term range and lack any real demand

  • Suggests that any further EUR/USD gains are expected to remain a grind

  • Related comments nL2N26T05SnL2N26Z04K



EURUSD implied vol: Click here

eurusd risk reversals: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 17 - 05:00 AM
GBP/USD - Acceleration Risk Below 200DMA
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 17 - 02:40 AM
  • Top in place at 1.2877 and now at best consolidation above 200DMA

  • Weekly cloud twist at 1.30 value Nov 1 likely out of reach today

  • Close above 55WMA, 1.2756 needed to keep the upside alive

  • However, dailies point to a return to the 1.2713 200DMA pivot point

  • Below here and risk of a fresh acceleration to the downside

  • Oct 11 significant up-day high is at 1.2708









GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 17 - 03:48 AM
Massive AUD/USD And USD/JPY Amid FX Option Expiries - Oct. 17
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 17 - 02:05 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.1000 (720M), 1.1015-25 (600M), 1.1050 (600M), 1.1090 (1.2BLN)

  • GBP/USD: 1.2650 (400M), 1.2700 (310M), 1.2800 (330M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6775 (1.3BLN), 0.6800 (1.6BLN), 0.6815 (1BLN), 0.6840-50 (1BLN)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3045-50 (500M), 1.3250 (1BLN)

  • USD/JPY: 107.95-108.05 (3.5BLN), 108.20-30 (1.6BLN)

  • EUR/JPY: 119.40 (710M)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 17 - 02:36 AM
AUD/USD - Strengthens On Jobs Data, But Perhaps Short Lived
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 11:25 PM
  • Up 0.3% in a 0.6751/0.6791 range, with a flurry of activity around jobs data

  • Unemployment dropped from 5.3% to 5.2%, full time strong +26.2 nL3N2710VJ

  • RBAs Debelle, housing downturn drag on economy for another year nS9N23B02F

  • Subdued outlook makes today's AUD bounce potential opportunity [nL2N27201Y

  • OIS priced a Nov RBA cut at 43.5% pre data - currently priced at 21.75%

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - little short term bias

  • Stalled below 0.6809, which is 61.8% Sep fall - now significant resistance

  • 0.6723 held in NY, 61.8% October bounce - break targets 0.6702 76.4%



aud2 oct 17 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 17 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Bounce On Sept Jobs Data An Opportunity
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 10:25 PM

Full employment is a central plank in the RBA's policy decisions nL3N26M22Z, making today's jobs a significant release.
The data was a touch better than forecast, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling 0.1ppt to 5.2%, and full-time jobs exceeding expectations at +26.2k nL3N2710VJ.
The knee-jerk AUD/USD response has been a 0.3% bounce.
OIS pricing for a November RBA rate cut on Eikon RBAWATCH fell to around 24% from 43.5% pre-jobs.
RBA Deputy Governor Debelle said this morning that the property downturn is hitting household consumption, economic growth and inflation, which will last for at least another year nS9N23B02F.
His comments do not bode well for the employment outlook and suggest further RBA cuts will be required.
Westpac, which called the easing cycle early, continues to expect the next cut in February. All this suggests that AUD remains a sell on strength. Charts show conflicting daily momentum studies, 5, 10 and 21 DMAs, which is a neutral setup.
Key levels are on the topside: 0.6809 is 61.8% of the September fall.
Support kicks in at 0.6723, 61.8% of the October bounce, which held in New York Wednesday.
Shorts around 0.6800 with a 0.6850 stop would provide value.


aud oct 17 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 11:00 PM
AUD/USD - Strong Full Time Jobs Component Sparks A Bounce
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 08:40 PM
  • Employment +14.7 poll 15k, Unemployment 5.2% poll 5.3%, full time +26.2k

  • Flat into data, knee jerk +0.3% on strong full time figure

  • RBA flagged employment as the pivotal driver of monetary policy

  • Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict - little short term bias

  • Stalled below 0.6809, 61.8% Sep fall - now significant resistance

  • 0.6723 held in NY, 61.8% October bounce - break targets 0.6702 76.4%

  • OIS priced a Nov RBA cut at 43.5% pre data - now 21.75%























aud oct 17 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 09:48 PM
GBP/USD - Key Resistance Held, Positive Signals Gain Momentum
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 07:40 PM
  • Flat after closing up 0.3%, as a viable Brexit deal gains traction

  • EU deal appears likely, uncertain UK parliament response nL5N27144L

  • No deal on October 31st has been taken off the table - UK Min nL5N2712EB

  • Charts, daily momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs climb, positive setup

  • 1.2883, 38.2% 2018/2019 fall capped in NY - now major resistance

  • Close above 1.2885 would target 1.3045, 76.4% of the 2019 fall

  • Close below 1.2582 Sep high needed to end the technical topside bias























gbp oct 17 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 08:36 PM
EUR/USD - Key Resistance Held, But Shorts Feel The Strain
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 07:10 PM
  • Flat after closing up 0.4% amid broad USD weakness and Brexit deal optimism

  • Brexit deal appears viable, UK parliament's response uncertain nL5N27144L

  • ECB will implement September stimulus package in full, Villeroy nF9N23X025

  • 1.1015-25 600M strikes support and 1.1090 1.1BLN cap in Asia without news

  • Charts - daily momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 MAs climb - bullish setup

  • Bias confirmed by sustained 1.1082 break, 38.2% June/Sep fall, tested in NY

  • Close below the 1.0988 21 DMA needed to end the topside bias

eur oct 17 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 05:00 PM
AUD: Marker Rushed Too Hard About Speculating RBA Deploying Unconventional Policy Measures - Citi
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 03:45 PM

Citi discusses the RBA policy trajectory in light of the central bank's latest meeting minutes this week.

"RBA monetary policy remains mildly dovish with further cuts dependent largely on the performance of the labor market. Following the three recent rate cuts and no smoking gun for another near-term cut, Citi analysts retain their call for no further policy easing until February 2020 as the RBA appears prepared to give previous rate cuts and tax rebates more time to support activity and given previous commentary from Governor Lowe that the economy has reached a gentle turning point. No discussion of QE in the Minutes - Despite the cut to 75bps in October, the Minutes make no mention of unconventional measures.

"Citi analysts think markets appear to have rushed too hard into speculation about unconventional policy measures being deployed in Australia," Citi adds.

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 03:48 PM
USD/JPY - Rising China Trade Angst Tempers USD/JPY Rise
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 01:30 PM
  • USD/JPY off early NY highs, -0.17% to 108.68; NY range 108.85-56

  • Pair off Tues wkly high by 108.90 despite lingering China trade angst

  • On-again U.S.-China trade angst stalls USD/JPY rise nL2N2710MF

  • USD broadly lower on positive Brexit tones weighs on USD/JPY

  • Move abv key Fib at 108.43 opens way for test of 200-DMA by 109.07

  • Brexit deal talk boosts GBP/JPY, options- 25D RR's rising JPY1MRR=

JPY Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 02:36 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Brexit Deal Optimism Pushes GBP/USD To 5-Month High
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 11:05 AM

Brief talk of a Brexit deal boosted GBP/USD to a five-month high by 1.2855, exposing risks to shorts even though it was later denied.
With the EU summit beginning tomorrow and the current Brexit deadline of Oct. 31 quickly approaching, GBP/USD shorts have been reducing positions put on after the original March deadline was delayed.
GBP/USD spec positioning moved from +922 contracts on April 16 2019 to -107,844 contracts on Aug 8 2019, with spot moving from 1.3048 to 1.2148 over the same period.
With the recent rise from 2019 lows near 1.2000 to current levels by 1.2800, specifically the rise from 1.2210 on Oct.
10 to current levels, Friday's release of GBP spec IMM position data will be scrutinized to see the degree of spec short-covering in anticipation of a Brexit deal.
Using IMM positioning as a gauge, the most recent time positioning was near flat, April 2019, GBP/USD traded just above 1.3100 so it stands to reason cable may return to those levels should shorts continue to exit if a deal is reached.
With that in mind a Brexit deal may boost GBP/USD to May 6 highs by 1.3190, but expect offers above as the UK growth outlook remains uncertain.


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 01:24 PM
G10: FX Opportunities In Risk-On/Risk-Off (RO/RO) Conditions - BofAML
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 11:35 AM

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research discusses the key takes on its latest work to incorporate recent sensitivities to assess potential FX moves in risk-on and risk-off conditions.

"Trade policy uncertainty remains a persistent source of global financial market gyration. Ups and downs in US-China and Brexit negotiations have buffeted FX markets and caused loss of conviction among investors. Of late, markets have rallied sharply on prospects for a reduction in global policy uncertainty. While the rally may continue, it could also reverse quickly. That is just the reality investors face these days," BofAML notes.

"Overall, we find USD/JPY is most sensitive to RO/RO conditions, but this is driven more by the interest-rate differential effect than specific risk appetite and ToT effectsIn risk-on, the pair is a preferred long as positive carry also works in the investor's favor. But in risk-off, negative carry can be punitive over longer holding periods," BofAML adds.

"Overall RO/RO sensitivities of USD/NOK and AUD/USD are about half that of USD/JPY despite their direct risk appetite-related effects being larger. But long USD/NOK and short AUD/USD offer staying power in risk-off as they are positive carry. This may explain why these pairs have trended so strongly this year amid a persistently uncertain policy backdrop," BofAML concludes.

 

Source:
BofA Merrill Lynch Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 12:12 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Breaks Above Fib But Gains Limited Before Fed
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 10:55 AM

EUR/USD longs are in control after U.S. retail sales declined for the first time in seven months nLNSGLEFC6nLLAGLEF3V, but caution ahead of the Fed's meeting later this month will keep them on a short leash.
The downside miss resulted in broad dollar weakness as U.S. Treasury yields dipped while Eurodollar and fed funds futures prices rallied.
The data also increased the probability of a 25bps Fed cut on October 30 to nearly 85% FEDWATCH.
EUR/USD rallied above the daily cloud base, 55-DMA and briefly pierced the 76.4% Fib of 1.1109-1.0879.
Hope for a Brexit deal nL2N2710NE also helped EUR/USD and a deal would spur more gains EUR/USD.
Technicals support the rally.
RSIs are rising, a bull hammer formed on Oct. 15 after the topside of the 10-DMA held and the bull trend off October's low remains intact. However, options markets point to limits on gains.
Risk reversals show vol premiums for EUR calls, suggesting investors are hedging for gains nL2N27109R.
Options also suggest the 1.1100 area could be the limit until risks from the ECB and Fed pass.
Daily highs from Sept. 13 and Aug. 27 sit at 1.1109 and 1.1116 respectively and those daily highs might be the furthest longs are able to push EUR/USD for now.








chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 11:00 AM
G10FX: AUD, NZD, NOK, SEK Cheapest G10; Long NZD/CAD Attractive Ahead Of Canadian Election - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 09:15 AM

TD Research discusses the latest readings from its high-frequency fair-vale model.

"If we look across the G10, the cheapest currencies are AUD, NZD, NOK, and SEK. GBP trades 2.8% to HFFV, underscoring how touchy markets on positive Brexit headlines. Barring GBP, these numbers suggest the USD screens about 1.4% rich to the rest, and yet EUR and CAD are trading mostly where they should. 

That means a weaker USD, especially if a get a modest push higher in CNH, would benefit the cheap Asian currencies. Short EUR versus NOK/SEK looks more attractive than long EURUSD given's MRSI short EUR on growth, carry, HFFV, and the yield curve," TD notes. 

"CAD's also fallen out of the long basket underscoring some room to fade it ahead of the Canadian elections. NZDCAD screens 2% cheap ahead of the lows," TD adds. 

 

Source:
TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 09:48 AM
GBP: Buying Pound On Any Dips Look Like A Sensible Trade Now - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 08:29 AM

MUFG Research discusses GBP outlook and shifts to a buy-on-dips bias in the near-term.

"The risks around Brexit changed notably last Thursday and a further apparent shift by the UK on Monday night (Customs border down the Irish Sea?) has shifted us further towards a deal that could feasibly be done by tonight, ready to be presented at the EU summit tomorrow. With this now a much more likely outcome, the focus is now very much on whether parliamentary support is there to get this approved on Saturday," MUFG notes.

"The EU may still ask for an indicative vote in parliament. If passed, that would open up a potential amendment to the Benn Act to allow for a shorter delay. A delay after a deal in principle is reached is unlikely to hit the pound, but the longer any delay is, the greater the risks for Johnson.

Still, buying the pound on any dips looks the sensible trade now with a deal supported by parliament the likeliest outcome, whether coupled with some degree of delay or not," MUFG adds. 

Source:
BTMU Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 08:36 AM
GBP/USD - Boosted By Barnier's Reported Brexit Deal Optimism
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 06:20 AM
  • GBP jumped on tip that EU's Barnier optimistic of getting Brexit deal today

  • See: nL9N26F00W. Cable rose to threaten 1.2787 (early Ldn intra-day high)

  • 1.2655 was intra-day low during the European am, re: Brexit deal pessimism

  • See: nL2N27109N. 1.2800 was Tuesday's 21-week high after report deal close

  • Irish PM says outstanding Brexit issues, may need more time nL5N2711BF

  • GBP/USD bull targets include 1.30, 1.3380 (2019 high) and 1.35 nL2N26Z05I

GBPUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 07:24 AM
EUR/GBP - Looks To The Weekly Action For Direction
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 05:25 AM
  • Through the current Brexit headline storm weekly charts lead the way

  • Profit locked to 0.8750 for our 0.8775 short play: still target 0.8620

  • Cross extremely jittery as deal and counter deal Brexit headlines impact

  • Price is holding below the lower 30DMA Bolli

  • Rebound risk increasing as stochs base and bear momentum fades slightly

  • Bears point to wkly cloud breach, 0.8692: 200WMA also close by at 0.8642









EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here

EUR/GBP daily chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Oct 16 - 06:12 AM
GBP/USD - Drops On Fear That A Brexit Deal May Not Be Agreed
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 16 - 03:50 AM
  • Cable falls to 1.2673 amid fear that EU/UK might not agree a Brexit deal

  • ITV's Peston tweeted that govt source told him "Chances of a deal are low"

  • 1.2673 is the lowest level for GBP/USD since Tuesday's 21-week high of 1.28

  • Hope that a deal might be agreed fuelled the recent six cent surge to 1.28

  • See: nL5N26Z1LK. EUR/GBP up to 0.8705 vs Tuesday's 5-month low of 0.8625

  • Brexit talks go down to the wire ahead of EU summit Thursday nL5N271181

GBPUSD: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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