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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Burton Frierson  —  Sep 18 - 04:03 PM

 

  • EUR net spec long trimmed to 178,576 from previous week's 196,814

  • JPY net spec long edges up to 22,889 from last week's 21,742

  • GBP's net spec long falls to 2,293 from previous 12,730

  • AUD specs now net long at 16,219, erasing last week's short of 2,044

 

EUR net spec long: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Sep 18 - 02:45 PM
  • USD/JPY's 104.27 EBS low nearly reached July's 104.195 nadir

  • A bounce in Treasury yields on Michigan and LEI beats supported

  • Daily RSI also in oversold territory before 4-day Japanese weekend

  • Diving real Tsy-JGB yield spreads could see 2020 lows again nL1N2GF0F6

  • GBP/JPY has potential for an 8% fall nL1N2GF0RB

  • And EUR/JPY is set for a bearish weekly close nL1N2GF0VC

    For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Sep 18 - 02:00 PM
  • Pair opens NY near 0.7310 after falling in Europe's am, slide then extends

  • Fall nears the 10 & 21-DMAs, trades 0.7283 before pair bounces above 0.7320

  • Equity bounce, gains in copper & iron-ore help AUD/USD's intra-day lift

  • AUD/USD sinks again as on US$ buys, equity fall, USD/CNH rally near 6.7800

  • Daily doji forms, daily & monthly RSIs fall; techs lean bearish

  • For more click on FXBUZ



aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 18 - 01:30 PM

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and flags a scope for testing 1.115s over the coming weeks. 

"EUR/USD made a second lower low rounding out a top. The euro remains well supported in the 1.17s as the market has bought it there five times steering off a larger decline," BofA notes. 

"Price action after the Fed led to a test of the 50d SMA and second lower low in last three weeks. While the bounce in the BBDXY progresses in the coming weeks, we should expect euro to stay within its rising channel (roughly 1.1725-1.2020) and for potential to grow for a decline to the 1.15s," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Christopher Romano  —  Sep 18 - 12:00 PM
  • US$ still on the defensive a bit after the Fed rally fades

  • AUD/USD above the 10 & 21-DMAs but still within 0.7250/0.7350 range

  • Monthly RSI implies longer-term momentum remains bearish

  • Daily charts show and head and shoulder top still possibly forming

  • Rising neckline of the H&S top currently sits at 0.7232

  • Completion of the H&S top suggests AUD/USD could trade near 0.7050

  • For more click on FXBUZ


aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 18 - 10:45 AM

Societe Generale Research discusses GBP outlook and maintains a bearish bias especially against the JPY in the near-term.

"We expect EUR/GBP to reach at 0.96 in Q1 next year, and be at 0.94% in a year's time. GBP/USD is likely to return to 1.25 in Q1. That's a 5% fall in the value of sterling in the next few months which will probably see the real effective rate fall to its lowest level ever at some point. Sterling's biggest source of support is that it is already so cheap and sentiment is already so bearish, about the currency as well as the economic and political outlook. It's already weaker than relative growth might suggest, or than relative rates might warrant. What it continues to lack, above anything else, is any kind of catalyst for a significant bounce," SocGen adds. 

In the meantime, despite an attempt at a bounce yesterday, GBP/JPY shorts remain our favoured way of expressing a short sterling trade in the near term," SocGen adds. 

Source:
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Sep 18 - 10:30 AM

GBP/USD slid on Friday after failing for a third day to surmount resistance near 1.3000 nL1N2GF0AE, suggesting a rare opportunity for sterling bears after a long summer rally.

Cable has managed only a shallow bounce from last Friday's 1.2763 trend low.
Coupled with what appear to be firm offers near the daily cloud top, currently at 1.2958, the pound's fortunes may
be fading.

Despite this week's rise off the trend low, GBP/USD is down 3.04% in September, and 4% from its Sept.
1 high at 1.3481.

GBP/USD bears continue to focus on mounting no-deal Brexit risks, with a worst-case outcome having the potential to stir the BoE to adopt negative rates.

The reversal of weak dollar sentiment after Fed Chair Powell delivered the Fed's inflation target shift at the Jackson Hole Symposium nL1N2FT16R is also a threat to GBP/USD.

With Brexit and UK rate uncertainties mounting, GBP/USD bears could resume selling, making a run at lower 30-day Bolli support at 1.2780 and the Sept. 1 trend low at 1.2763.
Below 1.2763, bears would target mid-July's double bottom by 1.2520 and then June lows by 1.2250.
For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 18 - 09:30 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the EUR outlook and flags a scope for further consolidation in the near-term.

"Ahead of next week’s PMI data, the EUR remains overbought while the ECB’s jawboning continues ...The EUR has been sidelined of late with market focus shifting to topics like the USD selloff vs Asian currencies as well as Brexit. That said, it seems that the combined effect of the recent ECB jawboning and a persistent overhang of EUR longs in the FX market has contributed to the latest lacklustre performance of the single currency especially vs the likes of the JPY and the GBP.

Looking ahead, we believe that the market focus will be on the upcoming PMI data out of the Eurozone as well as the German ifo for the month of September. With the Eurozone recovery having lost some momentum over the summer and with new Covid-19 cases continuing to grow across Europe, FX investors want to know if this was only a temporary setback or the beginning of a more protracted slowdown. In our view, it would take positive surprises from the data to boost the outlook for the EUR," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 18 - 08:30 AM

MUFG Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP over the coming weeks.

"Our short-term valuation model in the past has shown large divergences from spot at times of high levels of Brexit uncertainty. The degree of divergence currently is quite modest indicating to us that the level of Brexit risk premium priced remains small," MUFG notes. 

"Hence, we still see considerable risks to the downside especially now with Brexit risks also now more clearly linked to a likely move to negative rates by the BoE," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Sep 18 - 07:05 AM
  • Offers just shy of 1.30 are keeping a lid on cable: 1.2999 = Ldn am high

  • 1.2998 was Thursday's high after GBP jumped on von der Leyen's FT interview

  • See: nL1N2GF05M. 1.2993 was Asian session top. 1.30 was post-FOMC peak

  • 1.3008 (Wednesday's high) and 1.3035 are resistance levels beyond the figure

  • Support points include 1.2942 (Asian session base), 1.2900 and 1.2866

  • 1.2866 was Thursday's low nL1N2GE0OO. Second UK lockdown? nL8N2GF11P

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Sep 18 - 07:05 AM
  • EUR/USD -0.04%, USD/JPY -0.39%, GBP/USD 0.03%, AUD/USD -0.1%

  • S&P E-minis -0.04%, DAX 0.21%, Nikkei 0.18%, FTSE -0.16%

  • EUR/USD traders must have a sense of deja vu nL1N2GF05K

  • Defensive FX traders exit dollar and pile into yen all week nL1N2GF098

  • GBP/USD holds sub-1.30 after UK retail sales near forecast nL1N2GF05M

  • AUD/USD within strike of huge option expiry as kiwi rises nL1N2GF08P

  • FX Option Expiries nL1N2GE14M. U.S. Open nL4N2GF2L0

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Sep 18 - 05:25 AM
  • A huge 0.7300 expiry is exerting magnetism over AUD/USD amid NZD strength

  • The size of the strike for the 10am ET NY cut is A$2.4bln nL4N2GF1DO

  • 0.7302 = European am low. 0.7307-0.7333 was Asian session range nL1N2GF040

  • NZD/USD up to 17-month high just shy of 0.68 on upbeat Robertson comments

  • NZ FinMin Robertson said NZ economy is "coming back strongly" (Newstalk ZB)

  • RBA's Debelle to speak about monetary policy next week nL1N2GF07P

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Sep 18 - 04:00 AM

The good news for EUR/USD traders is that the uptrend is solid, the bad news is that it's taking longer to make a profit. nL1N2GF05K

EUR/USD is consolidating a big rise within 1.17-1.20.
This elevated consolidation is a bullish pattern that's held for five weeks.
It can be used to boost profits.

Speculators are an impatient bunch and consolidation has led to profit taking and several big dips.
When traders are holding the biggest bullish bet on record a lot of profit taking is required before the EUR/USD can rise quickly.

In the interim those long would be well advised to job (sell and buy repeatedly) their positions to try and improve their average.
EUR/USD has repeatedly gravitated to the centre of the 1.1695-1.2014 range, opening close to 1.1855 on 28 of the last 35 days.

Should traders sell and not see a dip they will have taken profit.
Frustrating maybe but still good news.
This range could hold until year-end when major position adjustment and thinner liquidity may allow for a breakout.
Dips will come.

Related CNH comment nL1N2GF06Q

For more click on FXBUZ


EUR/YSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Sep 18 - 02:35 AM
  • Cable remains below 1.30 after UK August retail sales data near forecast

  • Up 0.8% MM vs +0.7% f/c, annualized +2.8% vs +3.0% f/c nL8N2GF0X7

  • Offers pre-1.30 (post-FOMC high) kept a lid on GBP/USD in Asia nL1N2GF03U

  • 1.2998 was Thursday's high after jumping on Von der Leyen's FT interview

  • VdL 'convinced' EU-UK deal is still possible nFWN2GE0D4nL8N2GE26P

  • 1.2866 was Thursday's low on BoE's negative rates briefing nL8N2GE354

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Sep 18 - 02:35 AM
  • EUR/USD opens close to 1.1855, the centre of current 1.1695-1.2014 range

  • Excitement after Fed lasts just 24 hours

  • 28 of past 35 days pair has opened close to 1.1855

  • Fading moves towards the 1.17 or 1.20 is clearly advisable

  • When EUR/USD isn't moving it also pays to sell strength, buy into yield

  • Hedging for EUR 2bln expiries 1.1800-50 today will help anchor EUR/USD


EUR/YSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Sep 17 - 11:35 PM
  • AUD/USD opened 0.10% higher at 0.7312 after bouncing in NY session

  • After trading at 0.7307 - it moved up on the back of Tokyo AUD/JPY demand

  • AUD/USD traded to 0.7333 before a 0.50% fall in the E-Minis capped buying

  • Heading into the afternoon session the AUD/USD was trading just above 0.7320

  • Resistance at Sept 16 high at 0.7345 with selllers ahead of 0.7350

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 0.7280 and close below eases upward pressure

  • AUD/USD likely to be supported on dips while key commodities remain elevated

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Sep 17 - 11:30 PM
  • EUR/YSD opened 0.25% higher at 1.1847 and traded in a 1.1848/63 range

  • Heading into the afternoon it was trading around 1.1850

  • The low was hit when E-Mini futures eased 0.50% at one stage

  • The E-Mini losses were pared back and it down just 0.15% late morning

  • EUR/USD resistance is at the post-ECB Sept 10 high at 1.1917

  • Sellers are tipped around 1.1900 - some of which are option related

  • Support is found at the 21-day MA at 1.1840 and 10-day MA at 1.1827

  • Range trading likely to continue as market awaits fresh catalyst

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Sep 17 - 09:45 PM
  • E-Mini futures are down close to 0.40% and weighing on risk in Asia

  • AUD/USD back to 0.7310 after trading at 0.7333 earlier

  • Move up in early Asia was on the back of AUD/JPY demand out of Tokyo

  • Correlation between equities and AUD not as strong as it was previously

  • AUD/USD sellers ahead of 0.7350 have resulted in resistance at 0.7345

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 0.7285 and close below would be bearish

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Haruya Ida  —  Sep 17 - 07:55 PM

  • USD/JPY heavy, holding at 104.71-75 EBS in Asia, 104.53 low overnight

  • Japan August core CPI out, -0.4% y/y, as eyed, deflationary

  • Core-core CPI (excluding food/energy) -0.1%, overall CPI +0.2%

  • Core-core CPI falls for 1st time since March '17, core to Nov '16 level

  • Data again mocks BoJ's 2% inflation target but currently not focus

  • BoJ more focused on supporting any recovery, new Suga government

  • On CPI see nT9N2DM02M, nT9N2DM02O, on BoJ nL4N2GE0M0

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Sep 17 - 06:40 PM
  • EUR/USD opening Asia at Thursday's high above 1.1850 after 0.25% gain

  • It opens above 21-day MA at 1.1840 after trading as low as 1.1737 nL1N2GE1KN

  • Pair got a late day boost when Wall Street closed well above intraday lows

  • Sellers tipped around 1.1900 with resistance at Sept 10 high at 1.1917

  • Support at the 21-day MA at 1.1840 and 10-day MA at 1.1828

  • EUR/JPY flows likely to dictate EUR/USD direction in Asia










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Sep 17 - 06:00 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.10% higher at 0.7312 after trading as low as 0.7254

  • USD gave back all of gains made in Asia and key commodities remain firm nL1N2GE1KNnL4N2GE240

  • AUD/USD resistance and sell orders are just ahead of 0.7350

  • Break above 0.7350 targets September 1 high at 0.7413

  • Support at 21-day MA at 0.7275 and close below eases upward pressure

  • Key in Asia will be AUD/JPY flows out of Tokyo and Asian equity markets

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Sep 17 - 03:00 PM

NAB Research maintains a constructive bias on AUD/NZD in the medium to long term.

"Macro forces suggest further upside potential in the AUD/NZD cross rate. These include (i) the likelihood of a relatively stronger economic recovery in Australia (ii) higher AU-NZ interest rates and (iii) much less RBA vs RBNZ balance sheet expansion.  Although difficult to predict, current relative commodity price trends are also in favour of the AUD," NAB notes. 

"The 1.1350-1.14 mark is a level of strong long-term technical resistance, which is where our projections head into next year,"NAB adds. 

Source:
NAB Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Sep 17 - 03:45 PM
  • USD/JPY's July lows in play after close below 61.8% Fibo of July-Aug rise

  • This week's rapid breakdown below August's lows eyes July's 104.195 EBS low

  • If today's 104.525 low holds o/n, may get chance to sell by 105.29 Fibo

  • That happens to be by the 38.2% Fibo of September's slide at 105.30

  • Break well below rapidly expanding 21-day Bolli band points to fresh trend

  • Other than March's 101.18 spike low, lows since 2018 were all in the 104.00s

  • Thus, a break and close below 104 could see 2016's 99 low retested in time

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Sep 17 - 02:45 PM
  • USD/JPY's 104.525 EBS low is right by 161.8% Fibo off Sep's high

  • The 38.2% Fibo of Sep's 106.55-4.525 drop is at 105.30

  • And 105.29 is the 61.8% of the July-Aug rebound closed below Wednesday

  • That close below puts the 104.195 July low in play, among other signals

  • Intraday recovery in Treasury-JGB spreads, pre-w/e squaring may be S-T prop

  • But long-term yield spread compression, REER point much lower nL1N2GE0LQ

  • And Japan's new PM is less likely to quickly complain about yen gains

  • Aside from March's low, yearly lows since 2018 were all in the 104.00s

  • But Treasury-JGB yields spreads were far higher in previous years

    For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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