• USD/JPY has seen a 159.30-159.70, on Thursday, according to EBS data

• Good chance it will climb to retest the 160 psychological level, then the 2026 160.47 peak

• Beware the 160 level is seen as authorities' line-in-the-sand for intervention

• Recent failures to close below the broken 158.49 Fibo is quite a bullish signal, it is a "bear trap"

• USD/JPY failed on four occasions in April to register a daily close below the 158.49 Fibo

• 158.49 Fibo is a 23.6% retrace of the 152.10-160.47 2026 (EBS) rise

• 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is well below +0.5 (relationship broken)

Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)