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Oct 04 - 08:55 AM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Usually Climbs In October, But Maybe Not This Year

By Martin Miller  —  Oct 04 - 07:20 AM

AUD/USD has struggled so far in October, a month that usually sees this pair climb.
Signs are that it will buck that positive October seasonal trend this year.

An analysis of AUD/USD's October performance since 2000 shows it has risen in 15 of the past 22 years.

But seasonality should not be considered in isolation, and needs to be corroborated with other factors in order for it to be useful.
This is not currently the case.

Australia's dollar sank on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected interest rateincrease, a move that could continue to exert downward pressure on AUD/USD in the weeks ahead.

AUD/USD continuing to trade under the 0.6546 Fibonacci level, a 23.6% retrace of the 0.7136 to 0.6364 (August to September) drop, keeps the overall bias on the downside.

Fourteen-week momentum remains negative, reinforcing the overall bearish technical structure.
Only a weekly close above the 0.6546 level will shift the bias back to the upside.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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