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Jun 11 - 06:55 AM

USD/CHF - COMMENT-USD/CHF May See Its Usual June Drop Due To Two Factors

By Martin Miller  —  Jun 11 - 04:45 AM

USD/CHF's June seasonal analysis suggests an underlying fragility that could send this currency pair lower.

A study of USD/CHF's performance for each June since 2000 shows it has dropped in 18 of the last 24 years, or 75% of the time.
While seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it is a useful tool when corroborated by other factors.

In May, Swiss National Bank's Jordan saw a "small upward risk" to the central bank's inflation forecast, casting doubt over a June cut.
That has helped to prop up the Swiss franc and limit USD/CHF's upside.
There is just over a 50% chance of a SNB policy rate cut next week, according to the LSEG Interest Rate Probability App.

USD/CHF's rise in May faltered ahead of the major 0.9240 Fibo, a 50% retrace of the 1.0150 to 0.8330 (2022 to 2023) drop, highlighting the underlying bearish market structure.
That technical weakness has spilled into June and could well persist in coming weeks.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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