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Feb 08 - 02:55 PM

ING: Strategy for Trading US CPI Revisions on Friday

By eFXdata  —  Feb 08 - 01:30 PM


ING discusses the trading approach for the upcoming US CPI benchmark revisions, scheduled for release this Friday at 08:30ET. The focus is on the potential impact of these revisions on the dollar and risk assets, with anticipation that the dollar may strengthen leading up to the release. However, should the revisions align with the ongoing US disinflation narrative, a post-release dollar sell-off and a rally in risk assets might occur.

Key Insights:

  • Anticipation: The dollar is expected to maintain strength heading into the CPI revisions release, reflecting market caution and the significance of the data.

  • Event Risk: The revisions carry considerable event risk, given last year's hawkish surprises and their potential to challenge current disinflation expectations.

  • Possible Outcomes: If the CPI revisions do not disrupt the disinflation trend, the immediate aftermath could see a shift in market dynamics, favoring a softer dollar and bolstered risk appetite.


The imminent US CPI benchmark revisions present a critical moment for traders, with the dollar's performance and risk asset reactions heavily contingent on the data's alignment with disinflation trends. ING advises a cautious approach leading up to the release, highlighting the potential for significant market movements based on the revisions' implications for US monetary policy and the broader economic outlook.

ING Research/Market Commentary


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