ANZ Research discusses its key thematic calls for the FX markets in 2019.
"Overall, 2019 looks like it has the potential to make 2018 look like it was straight forward. The global growth trend will slow, policy inertia and tighter credit will intensify the weakness in liquidity and geopolitics will remain at the forefront. This will make for an inherently volatile and thematically unstable environment. Adding into the mix the fact that we think that it will be a year where overshoots from fair value, rather than changes in individual currency fundamentals, will drive performance," ANZ projects.
We also think these overshoots will mark the peak in the broader USD trend. Altogether we have a recipe for significant uncertainty. Within this we maintain our view that the AUD and NZD will underperform, and that the JPY is set for strength," ANZ adds.