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May 25 - 12:55 PM

EUR/USD: Shifting From Shorts In Spot To Options; What's The Trade? - Credit Suisse

By eFXdata  —  May 25 - 11:00 AM

Credit Suisse likes selling EUR/USD in options instead of spot for better risk-reward. 

"We accept that our long -held current EURUSD 1.0340 target is now likely to be a tough support level to crack, as it seems unlikely that the market’s willingness to price risks such as a quicker end to 50bp Fed hikes or a faster front -loading of ECB hikes is likely to disappear soon as a theme. At the same time, the risk of a further correction higher is material for now given the shift in market sentiment around the speed and scope of Fed hikes especially," CS notes. 

"As a result, rather than looking to sell spot EURUSD at this point, which has been our typical strategy on retracements, we now see better risk -reward in option strategies.

For example, buying a 28 Jul ’22 expiry EUR put / USD call with a 1.0750 strike (roughly 49 -delta) and selling a expiry 28 Jul ’22 EUR put / USD call with a 1.0450 strike (roughly 23 -delta), costs around 0.8 7% net of face value (spot ref 1.073 4 at time of writing, max losses limited to the upfront premium ). This is the maximum possible loss with a maximum net return of about 2.00% if spot is at 1.0450 or below at expiry. The option tenor gives us exposure to both June and July ECB and Fed meetings," CS adds. 

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary

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