Feb 12 (Reuters) - The news that Germany's trade surplus with the United States rose to a record high last year raises the risk of an aggressive tariff response from U.S. President Donald Trump, which could weigh on EUR/USD.

Data published on Tuesday showed Germany's trade surplus with the U.S. widened to 70 billion euros in 2024, from 63.3 billion euros in 2023, courtesy of a 2.2% increase in German exports to the U.S. and a 3.4% decline in German imports from the U.S.

The timing could not be worse for Germany as the Trump administration mulls the size of the tariffs it will levy on imports from the European Union.

Putting 25% tariffs on EU exports to the U.S. might depress EUR/USD towards 1.00, if not 0.95.

Germany was the only European country on the U.S. Treasury's "monitoring list" for extra foreign exchange scrutiny when the Biden administration published its final currency report last November.

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(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)