Citi discusses EUR/USD outlook into this week's ECB policy meeting on Thursday.

"EURUSD is modestly lower at 1.096 - the trajectory from here hinges on the upcoming large event risks. CitiFX Strategy say that while ECB may hike by 25bps, this may not be enough to trigger a clean EURUSD breakout above the 1.11 level (despite their structural bullish EUR case)," Citi notes.

"Our colleague is watching a weekly close below 1.0909, which would then show a reversal the upside trend. Two overnight matters helped solidify a 25bps hike," Citi adds.