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Apr 07 - 04:55 PM

USD/JPY - Staging For A Run At Trend Highs; Eyes CPI, Sales Data For Rates Fuel

By Randolph Donney  —  Apr 07 - 02:20 PM

  • Modest USD/JPY gains amid rising 10-yr & falling 2-yr Tsy-JGB yield spreads

  • Fed already priced to get rates above 3% in 2023 after one 25bp rate hike

  • Fed Gov Brainard, FOMC minutes and uber-hawk Bullard beat the rate hike drum

  • Seeing a big bounce in 2-10-yr Tsy yield spreads from Apr 1-4 inversion

  • Mooted $95bln/mo of Fed QT in minutes got the spread to 21.6bps today

  • Current 2.41% 10-yr Tsy-JGB yields spreads highest in nearly 3-year

  • USD/JPY's 9% March surge likely saps gains above 2022's 125.10 EBS peak

  • But 2015's highest high since 2002 and S-T Fibo target are at 125.86/7

  • A breakout to those targets might await next week's key data nL2N2W51DS

  • Uptrend is intact while closes remain above the 10-DMA, Friday by 123

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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