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Goldman Sachs Research previews this weeks' September ECB policy meeting.
"We expect the Governing Council to hike the policy rate by 25bp this week, as widely expected and fully priced. Investor focus will be on the updated staff projections and President Lagarde's commentary on the policy outlook during the press conference," GS notes.
"We maintain our view that September is more likely than not the last hike of this tightening cycle given our forecast for below-trend H2 growth, modest further core pressures, our forecast for lower energy prices than currently implied by forwards, and no Fed hikes. That said, we now see a low hurdle for a third hike in December if energy prices do not fall from here or inflation firms more notably, especially if the Fed hikes in coming months," GS adds.