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Aug 16 - 04:55 PM

USD/JPY - Close Above 146.10 Key For Best Bull Run Since Oct's Pre-MoF Carnage

By Randolph Donney  —  Aug 16 - 02:55 PM
  • USD/JPY trades above 146.10, the 76.4% of 2022-23's collapse

  • That drop began w Oct. 21's MoF-BoJ intervention led 151.94-144.50 collapse

  • A close above 146.10 could open way to resistance by 148

  • 2023's rising channel top, a Fibo target and weekly ATR top are by 148

  • Rising Tsy yields on mostly above f/c US data underpin prices

  • A sub-146 close could see prior 2023 peak and hefty 145 expiries tested

  • Assuming MoF and BoJ don't see yen's non-stop slide worthy of intervention

  • Now biggest run of higher daily lows & highs since Oct's surge to 32-yr peak

  • That 151.94 peak on EBS brought intervention and fall to 144.50 on Oct. 21

  • But Fri's core July Japan CPI seen at 2023's 3.1% lows dn from 3.3% in July

  • Was at 3.6% in Oct and rose to a 4.2% peak in Feb, so less inflation angst

  • Prices a bit O/B so a 146.10+ close is key to reduce bearish divergence risk

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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