• EU/UK rate differentials have been tightening of late

• Suggests a break of 0.84 in EUR/GBP is unlikely in the short-run

• ECB officials downplay the odds of an Oct cut 0#ECBWATCH

• A large deterioration in growth data would be needed to put Oct on the table

• Eyes turn to dual UK risks with CPI/BoE due Sep 18-19

• Given Sept meeting is likely to tee up a Nov cut

• Therefore, CPI may matter more for EUR/GBP direction

• With the BoE among the more hawkishly priced, risks lean to faster cuts

• Though, EUR/GBP remains largely a range trade between 0.84-0.86

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