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Apr 28 - 07:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD To Slump As Factors Combine Into A Toxic Mix

By Martin Miller  —  Apr 28 - 05:50 AM

Fundamental and technical factors combine to put EUR/USD in danger of a much bigger slump.

EUR/USD's drop to a five-year low is rekindling the possibility of parity for the first time in two decades, as fears of a euro zone recession encourage investors to pile on the bearish bets. nL2N2WQ0R9

Continued instability in Europe weighs heavily on EUR/USD as Russia steps up its assaults on eastern and southern Ukraine according to Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened "lightning-fast" retaliation against any Western countries that intervene on Ukraine's behalf. nL2N2WQ047.

EUR/USD has accelerated the long decline from the 2021 1.2349 peak, completing a 100% retrace of the 1.0636 to 1.2349 (2020 to 2021) rise, significantly weakening spot's technical prospects.
Fourteen-week momentum remains negative, reinforcing the overall bearish market structure for an initial slump to retest the 2017 1.0340 low.

There is a good chance of a bigger collapse under 1.0000 that could then lead to a retest of the 0.9608 September 17 2002 low.

Related comment nL2N2WQ0R9

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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