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Nov 10 - 10:55 AM

ANZ: USD/JPY Outlook and Trading Strategy for the Coming Week

By eFXdata  —  Nov 10 - 09:30 AM


ANZ provides insights into the potential movements of the USD/JPY currency pair in the upcoming week. Despite a narrower US-JP yield differential, which typically favors the Japanese Yen (JPY), the cross remains resilient and could climb higher or stay elevated. This trend is influenced by factors impacting the JPY, including a weaker outlook for China and ongoing speculation about future Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy measures.

Key Insights:

  • USD/JPY Independence: The pair has been moving independently of the US-JP yield differential, continuing to rise even when the differential narrows.

  • JPY Weakness Factors: A softer economic outlook for China and sluggish Japanese economic indicators are weakening the JPY. Additionally, the negative real wage growth in Japan (-2.4% y/y) adds to the currency's weakness.

  • BoJ Policy Impact: BoJ Governor Ueda's recent remarks suggest a low probability of immediate policy changes, especially given the current wage trends in Japan. This scenario further dampens hopes for JPY strengthening.

  • US Data's Influence: Upcoming US economic data could temporarily affect USD/JPY. If the data is unfavorable for the USD, a short-term dip below the 150 levels is possible.

  • Trading Strategy: ANZ suggests that any dip in USD/JPY next week could be a fleeting opportunity for a long position in the pair. The overall trend seems to favor the USD against the JPY in the near term.


ANZ foresees a potential brief decline in USD/JPY in the coming week, influenced by US economic data. However, the broader trend suggests continued resilience or even a rise in the pair, driven by ongoing JPY weaknesses and BoJ policy expectations. Traders might view any dips as opportunities for entering long positions in USD/JPY.

ANZ Research/Market Commentary


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