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Apr 05 - 02:55 PM

AUD: A May Rate Hike Doesn't Appear Likely Despite RBA Hawkish Pivot - Citi

By eFXdata  —  Apr 05 - 01:30 PM

Citi discusses the RBA Policy trajectory in light of the central bank April policy statement.

"RBA maintained their policy rate at 0.1%, although the highlight was the hawkish statement released alongside the policy rate. There were large changes to the language used in the statement, which we cover in our article here. – The hawkish shift pushed AUD higher and earlier gains by Australian bonds were erased, with yields now +7bps in the front end. Markets now price in 30bps of hikes by June 2022. NZD has followed AUD at +0.43%," Citi notes. 

"CitiFX Strategy believes that a May hike in rates doesn't appear likely given the RBA noting "Over coming months, important additional evidence will be available". However, they think that June and July meetings have become live meetings. They maintain that this hike would likely be a 15bps hike to 0.25%, a similar level to what markets are pricing in. At the same time, they flag that the upcoming election is likely to be a risk factor amid growing possibility of a government change as well," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary

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