Credit Agricole CIB Research highlights the prelim reading from its month-end fixing model.

"Global equity markets were broadly firmer in June. In FX, the USD has outperformed across the board on the month," CACIB notes.

"Overall, the moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be mild USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the SEK," CACIB adds.

Bank of America Global Research extends its USD bullish bias into Q3.

"We extend our bullish USD view and forecasts into 3Q '26. Having recommended selling EUR/USD in May, we expect a breakout from the long-held range to extend to 1.12 in 3Q '26. Our constructive USD view was predicated on the yawning gap between US growth outperformance and rate differentials in early 2Q. This has narrowed, supporting USD, but there is likely further to run, especially under our base case of three Fed rate hikes this year," BofA notes.

"Our rates team forecast ~30bp widening of the EUR-USD 2y differential by 3Q '26, which based on historical betas would imply ~1.2% lower EUR/USD, consistent with our new forecast but recognising downside risks as FX is prone to overshoot. We stay short EUR/USD via put spreads," BofA adds.

• AUD/USD traded 0.6908-0.6887 ovenright, NY opened near 0.6890, down -0.14%

• USD buying, US yield gains helped to weigh down the pair

• Drops in gold and silver added bearish pressur eon AUD/USD

• Equity rally, USD/CNH drop may have helped limit AUD/USD's drop

• Techs lean bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair is below 10- & 21-DMAs

• US May headline & core PCE a key risk today, estimates are for increase from April
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options thrive on FX volatility and rapid price movements in either direction and are priced according to that risk

• However, USD/JPY FX option traders face the dilemma of elevated FX break-out risks in a very low realised volatility environment

• USD/JPY is trading tight intraday ranges near multi decade highs ahead of 162.00 over recent sessions

• There's not enough realised volatility to support implied volatility - the 1-month expiry already back at 7.25 from 8.0 this week

• But a break above huge 162.00 option barriers could fuel another USD/JPY surge higher with increased volatility

• A 162.00 break could also be the catalyst for the next bout of official intervention and a rapid USD/JPY reversal

• Butterfly spreads remain a favoured option in this environment - they would benefit from a spot break-out in either direction

• No surprise to see sub 1-month 10 delta butterfly spread still trading near to recent and multi-year highs

• Related comment - FX options ignore US PCE in favour of June NFP data
USD/JPY 10 delta butterfly spreads


Benchmark 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Added Slug)

June 25 (Reuters) - FX traders should be aware that the relationship between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY has fully broken down in the near term.

USD/JPY has been grinding higher in recent weeks, continuing its broader uptrend, while EUR/JPY has stalled and suffered a setback, confirming that euro-side weakness has been acting as a drag on the cross and pulling it away from the yen-driven factors that would ordinarily keep the two pairs in lockstep.

The 30-day log correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY has turned negative, currently reading -0.04, a dramatic deterioration that signals the two pairs are now moving in opposite directions on a short-term basis.

This is a significant development. A negative correlation means that shared yen-driven factors can no longer explain EUR/JPY price action.

The 60-day correlation, by contrast, is holding at 0.68, meaning the longer-term structural relationship between the two pairs remains broadly intact. The gap between the 30-day and 60-day readings of more than 0.72 shows that the current dislocation is quite extreme.

EUR/JPY is currently carrying significant euro-side risk that may not be immediately obvious to those positioned purely on a yen view.
Correlation Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD has traded a 20.9 pip range thus far Thursday; 0.68871-0.6908

• Those parameters are within Wednesday's 0.6883-0.6924 range

• 0.6883 is the lowest level since April 6 (0.68775 was the low that day)

• Australian employment rose by a higher than expected 40,300 in May

• CFTC data: net AUD position flipped to first short since January in week to June 16

• Data on FX positioning for the week ended June 23 will be released on Friday

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds below 1.32 following Wednesday's fall to 1.3140

• 1.3140 is the lowest level since November 2025

• Ensuing climb to 1.3185 aided by Asian stock surge (GBP is risk-sensitive)

• 1.32 is a former support point. Large 1.3200 option expiry today

• FT-Unions combine to try to stop Ed Miliband becoming UK finance minister

• Media outlets say Reeves to be replaced when Burnham becomes UK PM

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Kalgoorlie Gold Mining slip 7.4% to A$0.025, their lowest since June 12

• KAL secures a cluster of 15 near-contiguous tenements along strike from the Gourdis and Vause gold mines in Western Australia; No deal value disclosed

• Package covers ~23.7 km² of prospective greenstone stratigraphy of the Yandal Greenstone Belt, one of the most productive gold corridors in Western Australia

• YTD, stock has halved in value

(Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru)

((; X: @thatstanishk Click here))

• Shares of Xpedra Resources advances as much as 11.8% to A$0.019, marking its biggest intraday pct gain since June 12

• Minerals exploration co says that continued drilling has further confirmed higher-grade shallow gold deposits at the Springfield project in New South Wales

• Adds, mineralisation points to potentially scalable reserves, with further assays and probes still underway

• Nearly 2.5 million shares changed hands vs the 30-day average of 1.9 million

• Stock mostly flat YTD

(Reporting by Shravya Marakini in Bengaluru)

• GBP/USD +0.1% Thur in Asia after closing above critical 1.3160 pivot Wed

• Close below 1.3160 may see pair accelerate toward 1.3040 support zone

• Surging oil supply not providing sentiment uplift widely anticipated

• DXY remains elevated near 13-month 101.80 high n firming FFR hike bets

• U.S. May core PCE price index due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +0.3% m/m

• Range Asia 1.31625-82, support 1.3040, resistance 1.3270-75 1.3867 1.4250
GBP Daily 55-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD -0.1% Thur despite bigger than expected rise in employment

• AU May employment +40.3k jobs (poll +30k), 4.4% unemployment (poll 4.4%)

• AU May household spending +1.3% m/m (prior -1.1%), keeps pressure on RBA

• Anticipated oil supply surge driving prices down, but growth concerns linger

• RBA's Hauser welcomes lower oil prices but says inflation still far too high

• AUD 0.6834 support within reach, break below would hasten move toward 0.6660

• Range Asia 0.6890-0.6908, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 4.1% to hit their lowest level since June 15

• Sub-index on track for a third straight session of losses

• Gold fell to a more than seven-month low overnight, due to pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar and growing expectations of interest rate hikes [GOL/]

• Shares of gold miners Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining drop more than 3% each

• Sub-index has fallen 17.9% this year, including session moves

(Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)

• Despite multiple recent threats, Japan's MOF refraining from FX intervention

• Cat and mouse game with market continuing, resulting in USD/JPY inching up

• USD/JPY 161.74-79 EBS so far in Asia today, nearing 161.93 high Monday

• Offers trail up to 162.00 option barriers, defensive sales, some exporters

• Stops above seen large however and will remain at back of spec minds

• Seems JPY shorts have increased even more over the past week, market ripe?

• Intervention now would likely have good impact but BOJ help would go farther

• Demand good on dips however, Gotobi Tokyo fix today and importers eyed

• Retail and spec interest, flows too, foreigner hedging of Japan stock buys?

• Tech support from 161.68 hourly Ichimoku kijun, cloud 161.49-53 below

• Option expiries today supportive too, total $3.2 bln from 161.50 to 161.00

• Near spot between 161.70-85 $933 mln, 162.00 $782 mln, 162.50-55 $915 mln

• JGB-US Treasury 2-year rate differentials still on wide side at @177 bps

• BOJ Tamura scheduled to speak later today, more hawkish-speak?

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On oil/USD , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD is down 3.7% since failing to break above the 55-DMA on June 15

• Currently -0.1% Thur, 7-consecutive trading days of decline looming

• NZD weak despite futures pricing implying 75.4% chance of Jul 8 RBNZ hike

• Further slide toward 0.5580 support likely sans left-field stimulant

• Surging oil supply not providing sentiment uplift markets expect

• RBNZ Governor Breman will attend the annual closed-door BIS conference Fri

• Range NZ 0.56395-55, support 5580, resistance 0.5990-95 0.6012 0.6093
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

MUFG Research discusses the summary of opinions from the BoJ's June meeting

"Pressure on Japan to intervene again to support yen has increased after the BoJ’s latest rate hike failed to disrupt the weakening trend. The release of the minutes overnight from the June policy meeting indicated support for further rate hikes. the BoJ has become less concerns over downside risks to growth while many members expressed awareness of upside risks to prices. The minutes suggested that one or two members may propose voting for another hike as soon as September or October. One member noted it is desirable ”to consider whether to raise the policy interest rate as appropriate with intervals of a few months in mind”," MUFG notes.

"The Japanese rate market is now pricing in around 16bps of hikes by October. However, market expectations for the BoJ to speed up rate hikes have not yet triggered a stronger yen," MUFG adds.

• AUD/USD -1.7% wtd as sentiment sours despite U.S.-Iran peace progress

• Commodities lower across the board: Copper -2.6%, Gold -2.7%, WTI -4.6%

• AU May employment data due Thur, Reuters poll: +30k jobs, 4.4% unemployment

• RBA's Hauser welcomes lower oil prices but says inflation still far too high

• AUD targeting 0.6834 support, break below opens door for fall toward 0.6660

• Overnight range 0.6883-0.6906, support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

The dollar held broad, haven-linked gains on Wednesday as a bull flattening of the yield curve coincided with falling commodity prices, soft U.S. housing data and uncertainty over progress in U.S.-Iran talks.

Metals extended losses on China demand concerns and taught Fed policy, while WTI crude slipped below $70/bbl on increased Hormuz traffic. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supported scaling back Fed guidance but urged openness on inflation risks while adding that maintaining dollar dominance is essential. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said 20 million barrels of crude oil exited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, with flows still disrupted by Iranian mines but expected to continue. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran agreed to no tolls for Hormuz transit, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted Iran talks will resume later this month. Israel’s defense minister said troops will stay in southern Lebanon, a hurdle for Iran-U.S. peace talks. In data, U.S. new home sales fell for a second straight month, declining 7.3% in May. The Bank of Canada's governing council agreed to keep its monetary policy nimble to respond to new U.S. trade restrictions, the impact of energy prices, or both playing out at the same time, according to the minutes of its meeting.

The dollar index held its gains after hitting a new one-year high beyond an expanding Bollinger Band, with momentum pushing it deeper into overbought territory. Dollar call buying underpinned though a dip in futures open interest suggest longs may be getting stretched. Renewed weakness in the Chinese yuan on PBOC rate cut speculation weighed on metal prices and supported the dollar. EUR/USD fell to a one-year low of 1.1325 before settling, though bearish momentum indicators and a completed head-and-shoulders top signal further downside risk. GBP/USD dipped below its lower Bollinger to a seven-month low of 1.3140, with bearish momentum on Fed-BoE divergence signaling risks toward 1.3100. USD/JPY rose on haven dollar demand and quarter-end flows, with a series of higher lows offering an upside bias toward the 161.96 2024 high despite overbought conditions and intervention risks. AUD/USD slipped as risk sentiment deteriorated and metal prices fell, with bearish position below 0.70 and its 10-day moving average signaling downside bias.

Treasury yields were down 6 to 9 basis points as the curve bull flattened. The 2s-10s curve fell about 3 basis points to +25.8bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.27% as tech and energy shares weighed. WTI oil dropped 4%, briefly dipping below $70/bbl as gains since the Iran war outbreak have been almost entirely erased.

Gold fell 3%, silver tumbled 8% and copper slid 3% amid dollar gains and a weaker CNH.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.22%, USD/JPY +0.12%, GBP/USD -0.30%, AUD/USD -0.40%, DXY +0.20%, EUR/JPY -0.12%, GBP/JPY -0.21%, AUD/JPY -0.29%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6890 after 0.6885 traded in Europe's morning, the pair then lifted

• Abatement of USD buying & rally in equities helped the pair traded 0.6906

• The rally stalled though as risk sentiment soured & USD/CNH rallied to 6.8195

• Equities turned lower & gold, silver and copper all suffered significant drops

• AUD/USD fell back toward the overnight low, it traded down -0.43% in NY's afternoon

• Techs are bearish; RSIs indicate downward momentum, pair trades below 10- & 21-DMAs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research maintains a bullish bias on the USD in the near-term.

"Recent client discussions have signalled that a growing number of FX investors have been turning bullish on the USD. Our positioning data has further suggested that the USD - already the biggest long in the FX market - has continued to attract buying interest in recent days. In that, most market participants agree that the recent USD gains are very consistent with the predictions of the "USD-smile" market template that links USD outperformance with (1) higher US rates; and (2) spikes in risk aversion," CACIB notes.

"In particular, the Fed's hawkish hold in June has triggered tightening of global financial conditions that, in turn, has fuelled global risk aversion. The high-yielding, safe-haven King USD should continue to smile in the near term, as a result," CACIB adds.

• Ether rallied to 1687.29 earlier in the session, sellers then emerged, Ether then turned lower

• It then struck a 3-1/2-week low of 1567.46 in NY, traded down -5.48% as of this writing

• Broad-based USD buying weighed; USD/CNH's rally to 6.8195 reinforced the USD bid

• Sharp drops in gold, silver & equities turning lower helped send riskier assets like Ether down

• Ether bears are closer to taking greater control as the June 6 daily low is approaching

• Techs are bearish; daily inverted hammer formed & daily, monthly RSIs indicate downward momentum

• Break of the June 6 low brings the 2025 yearly low struck in April at 1387.02 into focus
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses AUD/USD outlook and notes that the pair is currently undervalued.

"Intensifying headwinds have dragged AUD/USD below 0.70 and net positioning has moved short for the first time since January (Exhibit 2). 0.6850 is a key line in the sand: the 200-day moving average and the recent low during a brief equity sell-off in March. We see important headwinds (rate differentials, equity risk sentiment, strong USD) but see the outlook for other drivers as more bullish than the market (China consumer spending, demand for industrial metals). Nonetheless, our model suggests fair value is around 0.71, above the spot rate (0.6920)," BofA notes.

'In the near term, risks skew to the upside ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. Last month's report was unusually weak, but one-off factors may have weighed on employment. Our economists think the RBA is likely to remain concerned about sticky core inflation after today's report even if oil prices remain around current levels. Bottom line: we are likely stuck in a range, which would be good for collecting carry; we remain buyers on dips," BofA adds.

(Repeats with no changes)

June 24 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Wednesday 24 June

• EUR/USD: 1.1300 (550M), 1.1350-55 (1.1BLN), 1.1360-65 (576M)

• 1.1400-05 (1.1BLN), 1.1415-25 (775M), 1.1450 (2.7BLN), 1.1465-70 (518M)

• 1.1475-80 (792M), 1.1490-95 (483M), 1.1500-10 (14.93BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan Research discusses the summary of opinions from the BoJ's June meeting.

"The summary of opinions from the BoJ's June meeting confirmed the Board's hawkish bias and helped justify the decision to hike. Looking ahead, many members appeared to support continuing rate hikes, but relatively few commented on the pace or specific timing of further moves. That said, two members argued for accelerating the hiking pace," JPM notes.

"Overall, the tone suggests that the Board sees downside risks to domestic and global growth receding, while concerns about upside inflation risks are intensifying. We continue to expect the next rate hike to come in October, driven by yen depreciation and ongoing inflationary pressures," JPM adds.

Morgan Stanley Research prefers hedging further USD runs via short GBP/USD expressions over short EUR/USD exposure.

"For investors looking to hedge for a potential further USD run, we think GBP/USD shorts are the most attractive expression... On the whole, we think consensus is generally less constructive on European currencies. In risk-on periods, we think short EUR/ EM and short EUR versus cyclical G10 currencies (e.g., EUR/AUD) have been popular. If investors pivot from cyclical risk-on currencies toward a safer haven USD, EUR and GBP are likely to be prime candidates to express this view," MS notes.

"We would prefer GBP/USD over EUR/USD because, in the near term, we think there remains scope for investors to add GBP-negative risk premium. For more on our GBP cautious view, see here," MS adds.