Implied volatility gauges FX realised volatility/expectations - its very low
EUR/USD overnight/next day implied vol 6.0 - break-even just 27 USD pips
1-week expiry implied vol eyes March/2024 lows at 4.0 vs 6.5 pre U.S. CPI
1-month implied vol 5.45 - vs 2yr low 4.9 late Mar and a 7.1 peak in mid Apr
Past realised volatility can provide a fair value measure - its heavy too
1-week realised is level with implied in mid 4's. 1-month realised just 4.3
A lack of impending data and big expiries can influence/contain FX near term
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