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Aug 13 - 11:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT- Sterling Slide Pared Into Europe Close, Bears Respect Fibo Sub-1.38

By Paul Spirgel  —  Aug 13 - 10:28 AM

Sterling has risen off its overnight, and month-to-date, low at 1.3791 as U.S. dollar bulls lighten longs despite Thursday's upbeat PPI report which reinvigorated expectations for an early Fed asset taper.

With no UK data Friday, the pound has firmed, although at a diminished pace relative to other major currencies, on rising euro zone trade data and sideways U.S. import, export data nAPN07HJB8.

Friday's dip to 2-week lows, sub-1.38, is ripe for reversal as weak UK output data on Thursday was counterbalanced by rising, and in-court UK Q2 GDP data, hinting the nascent UK recovery is ongoing.

Rate-wise, short-sterling futures 0#FSS: continue to price an earlier UK rate hike than the Fed.
Though, the U.S. Eurodollar (FI) strip hints the Fed may be hiking considerably longer than the BoE once the U.S. central bank’s rate normalization begins.

Despite slight sterling weakness versus the yen and euro into the week's close, the BoE is expected to be considerably more hawkish than the BoJ and ECB which should help prop up the pound broadly in the near-term.

Support for the pound in the high 1.3770's at 1.3778, the 50% Fibo of 1.3573-1.3984, and the rising 200-DMA at 1.3777, are key.
A close below 1.3777 puts the lower 30-d Bolli and July 20's 1.3573 in sharper focus.

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GBP Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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