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Feb 21 - 02:55 PM

ANZ: NZD/USD 2024 Outlook Mirrors GBP/USD in 2023

By eFXdata  —  Feb 21 - 01:30 PM

Synopsis:

ANZ compares the trajectory of NZD/USD in 2024 to the performance of GBP/USD in 2023, suggesting a challenging path ahead for the New Zealand dollar. According to ANZ, potential rate hikes or pauses by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are unlikely to bolster the NZD/USD significantly, drawing parallels to the British pound's struggle amidst economic stagnation despite the Bank of England's (BoE) rate adjustments in 2023.

Key Insights:

  • Limited Currency Support from RBNZ Moves: Anticipated actions by the RBNZ, whether rate hikes or maintaining current policy, are not expected to provide substantial or lasting support to NZD/USD.
  • Comparative Analysis with GBP/USD: ANZ draws a comparison to GBP/USD's situation in 2023, where the BoE's rate hikes amidst a faltering economy did not yield positive outcomes for the pound, suggesting a similar scenario for the NZD in 2024.
  • Challenging Economic Environment: The analogy highlights the difficulties currencies face in gaining strength from central bank policy actions when the underlying economy is not robust.

Conclusion:

ANZ's analysis positions NZD/USD for a challenging year ahead, akin to the struggles experienced by GBP/USD in 2023. Despite potential rate adjustments by the RBNZ, the broader economic context in New Zealand is expected to limit any positive momentum for the NZD, underscoring the complex relationship between central bank policies, economic health, and currency performance.

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary

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