The British pound looks set to struggle against the U.S. dollar in August due to a combination of seasonal, fundamental and technical factors.
GBP/USD's August performance since 2000 shows it has fallen in 15 of the past 22 years, or 68% of the time.
Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it needs to be corroborated by technical and fundamental factors.
The pound weakened against the dollar on Tuesday as traders turned to safe-haven currencies amid rising U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan, with the market also looking ahead to a Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting this week. nL1N2ZE1C1
There is a good chance a top will form on daily technical chart, increasing the downside threat this month.
GBP/USD in recent sessions has failed ahead of the 1.2320 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace of the 1.2666 to 1.1761 (June to July) drop.
The thick daily cloud, that currently spans the 1.2266-1.2512 region, continues to inhibit bulls.
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