April 25 (Reuters) - Doves will coo for a hefty half-point interest rate reduction from the European Central Bank in June if EUR/USD extends north to 1.20 in May.
Further EUR/USD gains next month, to follow its approximate 5% increase this month, could bear down on euro zone inflation - and provide a window of opportunity for the ECB to deliver an aggressive cut on June 5.
ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Thursday the possibility of a larger-than-normal 50 basis point cut would depend on the medium-term inflation outlook and whether the growth outlook improved or deteriorated.
Also on Thursday, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said "there's no reason to say we're always going to do the default 25" basis point moves. The ECB has delivered seven quarter-point cuts in the past year.
EUR/USD, which scaled a 41-month peak north of 1.15 at the start of this week, was last at 1.20 in June 2021.
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(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)