Credit Agricole CIB Research runs simulations  for USD/JPY short-term fair-value.

"We run simulations using our FAST FX model for USD/JPY allowing for three major themes we expect to drive the exchange rate in the coming 18 months: (1) the Fed & the BoJ and the US-Japan short-term rates spread; (2) investor concerns about Japan’s fiscal sustainability and the BoJ being behind the inflation curve & so the US-Japan box yield spread; and (3) the US-Iran war and oil prices & equity markets. We also allow for interactions between these theme," CACIB notes.

...The lower end of our simulation estimates for USD/JPY’s short-term fair value of about 163.50. If, however, a peace deal fails to emerge and the Strait of Hormuz recloses, (1) USD/JPY’s fair value rises to nearly 171...

The median outcome of all our simulations is 170.45, suggesting that the path for USD/JPY is higher unless the structural weaknesses in the JPY are addressed," CACIB adds.