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Nov 25 - 11:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-More EUR/USD Battles Ahead Before Reclaiming September High

By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 25 - 11:05 AM

EUR/USD longs won another battle in their quest to take on September's monthly high but U.S. data, Brexit, EU recovery fund and options risks seem to be tempering enthusiasm.

EUR/USD hit a 2-month high on buoyant equities and oil's rally, but those gains faded a bit after another increase in U.S. jobless claims nL1N2IA2AX soured risk sentiment slightly.

Highlighting Brexit danger for the euro, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said no-deal risk remains nL8N2IB1TS despite genuine progress.

Roadblocks to the EU recovery fund from Poland and Hungary nP6N2ES01K likely bolster EUR/USD bulls' reluctance to act aggressively.

Options currently show only limited enthusiasm for EUR/USD gains.
Risk reversals indicate vol premiums for EUR/USD calls over puts have increased but not significantly.
Options suggest the 1.1600-1.2000 range will hold for now nL1N2IB0R9 but that a big move could ensue once 1.2000 breaks.

Technicals highlight upside risks but also flash warnings.
Monthly charts show RSI rising and a bull engulfing candle forming.
Daily charts show RSI is near overbought and an inverted hammer forming, which could signal a possible correction.

A move above 1.2000 seems likely but patience is required.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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