EUR/USD longs won another battle in their quest to take on September's monthly high but U.S. data, Brexit, EU recovery fund and options risks seem to be tempering enthusiasm.
EUR/USD hit a 2-month high on buoyant equities and oil's rally, but those gains faded a bit after another increase in U.S. jobless claims nL1N2IA2AX soured risk sentiment slightly.
Highlighting Brexit danger for the euro, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said no-deal risk remains nL8N2IB1TS despite genuine progress.
Roadblocks to the EU recovery fund from Poland and Hungary nP6N2ES01K likely bolster EUR/USD bulls' reluctance to act aggressively.
Options currently show only limited enthusiasm for EUR/USD gains.
Risk reversals indicate vol premiums for EUR/USD calls over puts have increased but not significantly.
Options suggest the 1.1600-1.2000 range will hold for now nL1N2IB0R9 but that a big move could ensue once 1.2000 breaks.
Technicals highlight upside risks but also flash warnings.
Monthly charts show RSI rising and a bull engulfing candle forming.
Daily charts show RSI is near overbought and an inverted hammer forming, which could signal a possible correction.
A move above 1.2000 seems likely but patience is required.
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