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May 04 - 05:55 AM

USD/JPY - Could Climb Further After Last Week's 'Action'

By Martin Miller  —  May 04 - 03:57 AM

May 4 (Reuters) - FX traders could take USD/JPY higher after last week's slump caused by likely direct intervention as key technical levels continue to limit the downside.

On Friday USD/JPY dropped from 160.72 to 155.49 to hit its lowest level since February, testing the 155.50 Fibonacci level, before recovering. The 155.50 level is a 61.8% retrace of the 152.28 to 160.72 (February to April) EBS rise and it is seen as key support. The 61.8% retracement is known by some as the "golden ratio" in the sequence due to its outsized significance in determining the direction of the price action.

While direct intervention is a strong political tool to influence the market, it usually does not change the long-term dynamics of a currency pair's direction.

While USD/JPY has traded below the Ichimoku cloud, which currently spans the 156.29-158.11 region, only a daily close below this region would prevent a potential bear-trap. A potential bear-trap is usually a bullish signal and could see the market rebound after last week's likely intervention. USD/JPY dropped once again on Monday, fuelling speculation of renewed Japanese buying to stem the yen's long-running slide. As Japanese markets are closed on Monday through Wednesday for the Golden Week holiday, that could cause wild swings in the yen owing to thin liquidity.
Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters
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