July 17 (Reuters) - The euro's slide against the dollar since the Iran war erupted has unfolded inside a structural range that has held for over a year — and that range may now be approaching its resolution.

EUR/USD's monthly price action has been boxed between two long-term moving averages: the 100-month and 200-month trackers are currently at 1.1207 and 1.1863, acting as floor and ceiling respectively. The range has already been tested twice. The euro pushed against the boundary in May 2025, and again in January 2026, and on both occasions the pair closed back inside the envelope by month-end — a pattern that has only reinforced the strength of the walls.

Not all boundaries carry equal weight. The 200-month average, sitting atop the range, captures far more price history than its 100-month counterpart, making it the tougher barrier to crack. The 100-month floor, by contrast, is the more vulnerable of the two.

That asymmetry lines up with the current bias: with the euro's monthly momentum still tilted lower, the more probable path is a break beneath the 100-month floor rather than a breach of the 200-month ceiling. Should the floor give way, the monthly Ichimoku cloud — a system mapping trend, momentum, and support/resistance — projects a downside target of 1.0940-EBS pricing.

That base case isn't unconditional, though. It rests on the market's current pricing of Federal Reserve rate hikes holding firm. If those bets fade — on softer U.S. data or a durable Gulf de-escalation — the dollar leg of the equation weakens instead, flipping the technical conversation entirely. In that scenario, a confirmed break above the tougher 200-month ceiling would point to a shift into a structurally higher trading range, with the January high of 1.2084 as the next marker.

The message is less a directional call than a conditional map: the floor is the more probable break point given current momentum, but the ceiling scenario remains very much alive if the Fed narrative shifts. Either way, the range's long defence means whichever wall finally cracks will likely set the tone for the pair's next major leg.
EUR/USD Monthly Chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)