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May 24 - 07:24 AM
GBP/USD - Falls Half-A-Cent From Post-May Exit News High
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 05:35 AM
  • Cable down half-a-cent from 1.2710 high immediately after PM May exit news
  • See: nL5N2300L0. 1.2710 = high since Thursday's 1.2605 low
  • 1.2605 = 20-week low, courtesy of heightened fears of a no-deal Brexit
  • Boris Johnson is the bookmakers' favourite to succeed May nL5N22Z4F0
  • BUZZ-GBP/USD could drop to 1.20 if Boris gets the gig
  • 0.8804 was immediate EUR/GBP low after May exit news, 0.8832 = ensuing high

GBPUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 06:12 AM
EUR/GBP - Bulls Hope 0.8840 Finally Breaks After May Speaks
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 04:00 AM
  • Cross met fresh headwind pre-0.8840 after following EUR/USD up early Europe
  • Offers just shy of 0.8840 (Feb 14 high) also capped gains Wednesday-Thursday
  • 0.8838 and 0.8837 were Thursday's highs, with 0.8790 marking the interim low
  • EUR/GBP bulls hope expected May exit news prompts fresh selling of the pound
  • See: nL5N2300L0. EUR/GBP has risen for a record-breaking 14 days in a row
  • 0.8850 = 1.13 GBP/EUR. 0.90 and 0.91 among bull targets beyond

EURGBP: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Is This EUR/USD Rise Just Another Chance To Sell?
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 02:50 AM
  • EUR/USD new trend low @ 1.1106 yesterday then rebound reaching 1.1205 today
  • Pair closed over 21-DMA @ 1.1189 but drivers for the rally have dissipated
  • Rebound was triggered by risk aversion stemming stocks and oil falls
  • Both oil and stocks have stabilised. Mood to pare euro shorts likely fades
  • Further rise likely depends on initiation tech inspired longs, counter trend
  • 55-DMA 1.1237/May 13 high to offer strong resistance. Trends are your friend

EUR/USD daily Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 02:36 AM
USD/JPY - Teases Negative Chart Cues, 109.55 Support Critical
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 12:50 AM
  • USD/JPY stays soggy at 109.60 even as US yields stage minor bounce
  • UST 10y last at 2.329% vs prev close 2.320%; E-minis +0.3%
  • Japan core CPI rises 0.9% y/y, as expected; little effect on JPY
  • But USD/JPY charts will turn negative pending Fri close below 109.55
  • Weekly Bollinger downtrend channel activated will encourage sellers
  • Weekly Ichimoku Cloud base would also be breached, exposing downside

WeeklyJPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 24 - 01:24 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on May 24 - 12:00 AM


24-HOUR VIEW: Rebound in EUR has scope to extend but 1.1210 is expected to offer solid resistance. Expectation for EUR to trade sideways was incorrect as it dived to 1.1106 before rebounding strongly. While the rapid recovery appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for it to extend higher. That said, any further advance in EUR is expected to face solid resistance at 1.1210 (next resistance is at 1.1230). On the downside, 1.1130 is likely strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 1.1160).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR is likely to trade sideways. While we indicated yesterday (23 May, spot at 1.1155) that the “risk of a break of 1.1130 has increased”, we were of the view “it is too soon to expect EUR to crack last month’s low at 1.1110”. Expectation for a “break of 1.1130” was correct but the move below 1.1110 (low of 1.1106) and the subsequent sharp rebound that hit an overnight high of 1.1187 came as a surprise (the 81-pips range registered yesterday is the largest 1-day range in a month). The price action yesterday has clouded the outlook even though the manner of which EUR rebounded ahead of 1.1000 suggests we may have seen a short-term bottom at 1.1106. That said, it is premature to expect a sustained rebound. For the next couple of weeks, EUR is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways, likely within a 1.1130/1.1230 range.


24-HOUR VIEW: Short-term bottom in place, GBP is expected to trade sideways to slightly higher, likely within a 1.2630/1.2710 range. Yesterday, we expected GBP to “retest the 1.2625 level but oversold conditions suggest a drop below 1.2600 is unlikely”. In line with expectation, GBP touched 1.2605 before staging a surprisingly robust recovery (NY close of 1.2657). The combination of oversold conditions and dissipating downward momentum suggests 1.2605 is likely a short-term bottom (GBP is not expected to move below this level for today). That said, it is too soon to expect an extended recovery. GBP is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways to slightly higher, likely within a 1.2630/1.2710 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Weakness is severely oversold but 1.2600 is beckoning. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (see reproduced update below). GBP came very close to 1.2600 as it touched 1.2605 before staging a robust recovery. After yesterday’s price action, the beckoning call of 1.2600 has softened.While we indicated on Tuesday (21 May, spot at 1.2735) that the “focus is at 1.2670”, we were of the view “oversold conditions suggest the prospect for further extension to the next support at 1.2630 is not high”. However, GBP extended its decline as it plummeted to 1.2625 during NY hours before recovering. Despite the relatively large drop, we still have doubts on whether the current ‘negative phase’ that started in mid-April (see annotations in chart below) could extend further. From here, the next support is at 1.2600 but once below this level, the next significant support is another 100 pips lower at 1.2500. On the upside, only a move above 1.2760 (‘key resistance’ previously at 1.2840) would indicate that the ‘negative phase’ has ended. Meanwhile, the round number support of 1.2600 is beckoning.


24-HOUR VIEW: Room for AUD to advance but lackluster momentum suggests any up-move could be limited to 0.6925. AUD traded between 0.6865 and 0.6900 yesterday, right within our expected range of 0.6865/0.6900. The firm daily closing in NY (0.6899) suggests there is room for AUD to advance from here. That said, lackluster momentum indicates that any up-move is likely limited to a test of 0.6925. The next resistance at 0.6945 is a solid level and is unlikely to be challenged. Support is at 0.6885 followed by the 0.6865 low. The latter level is acting as a very strong support now.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Prospect for a move to 0.6835 has diminished. There is no change to our latest narrative from Tuesday (21 May, spot at 0.6925) wherein the “prospect for a move to 0.6835 has diminished”. We added on Wednesday (22 May), “AUD has to ‘punch’ below last week’s 0.6865 low and accelerate lower or the risk of a short-term bottom would increase quickly”. It is worth noting that AUD touched 0.6865 yesterday (23 May) before rebounding strongly. While it appears increasingly likely that the ‘negative phase’ in AUD that started in late April (see annotations in chart below) is close to ending, confirmation of a short-term bottom is only upon a move above the ‘key resistance’ at 0.6945 (no change in level).


24-HOUR VIEW: Further up-move would not be surprising but a move beyond 0.6545 appears unlikely. Expectation for NZD to “drift lower to 0.6465” did not materialize as it rebounded strongly after touching 0.6482. The rapid rise is running ahead of itself and while further up-move would not be surprising, a move beyond 0.6545 appears unlikely (there is another strong resistance at 0.6560). On the downside, the 0.6482 low is not expected to come into the picture (minor support is at 0.6505).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: NZD could be close to making a short-term bottom. NZD dipped to 0.6485 yesterday (23 May) before rebounding strongly to end the day higher by +0.36% at 0.6519 (largest 1-day gain in 3 weeks). The price action is not surprising as we indicated on Wednesday (22 May) that “NZD could continue to edge lower but 0.6465 is expected to offer solid support”. The combination of waning momentum and oversold conditions suggests the ‘negative phase’ that started earlier this month is close to completion. In other words NZD could be close to making a short-term bottom even though confirmation is only upon a move above the 0.6560 ‘key resistance’ (no change in level). From here, unless NZD can ‘punch’ below 0.6485 within these 1 to 2 days, a breach of 0.6560 would not be surprising. Looking ahead, a move above 0.6560 would indicate that NZD has moved into a ‘sideway-trading phase’.


24-HOUR VIEW: USD could dip below the strong 109.40 support but last week’s low near 109.00 is unlikely to come under threat. While we highlighted yesterday “upward pressure has dissipated”, we expected USD to “trade sideways within a 110.00/110.50 range”. The ease of which USD cracked 110.00 and the subsequent plunge to 109.45 came as a surprise. The sharp decline is running too fast, too soon but the weakness is not showing sign of stabilizing just yet. From here, barring a move above 110.00 (minor resistance at 109.75), USD could dip below the strong 109.40 support but last week’s low near 109.00 is unlikely to come under threat.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: USD has moved into a sideway-trading phase. We have held the same view since Tuesday (21 May, spot at 110.05) that USD has “moved into a sideway-trading phase”. USD subsequently came close to the top of our expected 109.40/110.80 sideway-trading range (high of 110.67) before diving yesterday to an overnight low of 109.45, just above the bottom of our expected range. For now, there is no change to our view but we are not ruling out a dip below 109.40. That said, only a break of 109.00 would indicate that the current ‘sideway-trading’ phase has morphed into a ‘negative’ one.

UOB Research/Market Commentary
May 24 - 12:12 AM
AUD/USD - Edges Lower On Westpac's Call For Three 2019 Cuts
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 10:10 PM
  • -0.1%, as Westpac, early doves, raise their call to three RBA cuts in 2019
  • New call suggests a bearish global growth outlook and its Australian impact
  • Refinitiv RBAWATCH OIS prices: 86% June cut, 99% in Sept, only 8bp in Dec
  • Yesterday's bounce leaves positive momentum studies, conflicting 5 & 10 DMAs
  • A major triple bottom just above 0.6860 now pivotal support
  • Close above 0.6903 falling 10 DMA would end downside bias

aud2 mau 24 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 11:00 PM
GBP/USD - Two Party System In Tatters, As GBP Trends South
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 09:05 PM
  • Shade firmer, closed flat amid broad USD weakness, EUR/GBP closed +0.3%
  • Media confident that PM May to resign on the week of June 10 nL5N22Z0PV
  • Boris Johnson is favourite for PM, raising chances of 'no deal' nL5N22Z2HZ
  • Political outlook remains fluid, scant reason to bargain hunt nL5N22Z4Z7
  • Daily momentum studies conflict, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs trend south - bearish setup
  • Close below 1.2638, 76.4% 2019 rise would target the 1.2409 2019 low
  • Close above the falling 1.2762 10 DMA would suggest consolidation

gbp may 24 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - Strong Base Above 0.6860 - 0.6900 Strikes A Magnet
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 07:55 PM
  • Flat after closing +0.25% on softer UST yields and broad USD weakness
  • Yesterday's bullish outside day would be validate by a close above 0.6900
  • Rise leaves positive momentum studies, 5DMA poised for a bullish 10DMA cross
  • A major triple bottom just above 0.6860 now pivotal support
  • Close above 0.6904 falling 10 DMA would end downside bias
  • 0.6850 455M, 0.6900 460M and 0.6940 500M are the close strikes

aud may 24 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 08:36 PM
USD/JPY - Slumps On U.S.-China Duel, Global Growth Concerns
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 07:00 PM
  • USD/JPY declines 0.65% Thursday as U.S.-China engage in verbal duel on trade
  • Increasingly aggressive tone from both sides rattles risk mood nL4N22Z35N
  • Global growth concerns back to fore, mfg PMIs in U.S., Germany, Japan drop
  • U.S. yields plummet, global stocks selloff sparking flight to safe-haven JPY
  • Japan core April CPI & government's monthly economic report for May due Fri
  • Report may downgrade assessment of economy, hold hints of Oct sales tax hike
  • Tue failure near 110.71, 50% of Apr-May drop negative; support 109.34-41

jpy: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 05:00 PM
USD/JPY: Macro Risk Dynamics Support an Appreciating Yen: Where To Target? - CIBC
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 03:30 PM

CIBC Research discusses the JPY outlook and maintains a bullish bias in the medium-term. CIBC targets USD/JPY at 106 in Q3.

The re-awakening of US-China trade concerns has caused cross-JPY pairs to test key support levels – including USDJPY. This has also led to increased FX volatility, as volatility is still over 1-vol cheaper than last year’s average. Should we see a sustained pick up in volatility, expect USDJPY to continue to press lower, as domestic retail investors repatriate overseas earnings and reduce short JPY positions," CIBC notes. 

"In aggregate, the BoJ is more concerned about Japan’s near-term economic outlook, especially given the decline in exports and the looming consumption tax hike expected in October (from 8% to 10%). Nevertheless, and the consumption tax may prove to be less of an issue this time around. Domestic fundamentals will take a backseat to macro risk dynamics in the near- to mediumterm, which favour an outperforming JPY," CIBC adds. 

CIBC Research/Market Commentary
May 23 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - Shorts Get Reminded Of Yuan, Fed Risks
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 01:35 PM
  • Pair heavy in early NY, global growth concerns & bond yield drops weigh
  • AUD/USD bears can only match the May 17 low, rally then ensues
  • Downbeat US data sinks interest rates, US$ sold across the board
  • USD/CNH slides near 6.9200 on PBOC stable yuan rhetoric nB9N22K050
  • AUD/USD goes +ive on the day, clears May 22 high & nears 0.6900
  • Daily techs lean bullish, RSI diverges & bull hammer forms
  • Yuan and Fed risks could keep bears on edge

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 02:36 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-Yuan, Fed Expectations Temper AUD/USD Bears
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 12:20 PM

AUD/USD bears might be having a rethink after failing in their latest attempt to crack support at last week's low of 0.6865.
Downbeat euro zone data and ECB concerns about growth fueled concerns that global growth remains anemic.
Heightened U.S.-Sino trade tensions bolstered growth concerns.
Global bond yields dived on those worries, helping push AUD/USD lower, but other cross currents are now at play.
A PBOC paper saying the bank is able and confident in keeping yuan stable drove USD/CNH down near 6.9250.
Downbeat U.S. economic data nN9N21F00Z nLNSNGEF47 sent U.S. Treasury yields spiraling lower .
The U.S. yield drop outpaced the slide in Australian yields, tightening Australian-U.S.
The U.S. data also resulted in sharp price rallies for eurodollar EDH0 and fed funds FFZ9 futures, suggesting increased odds of Fed rate cuts.
With better chances for Fed rate cuts investors are less attracted to the greenback.
As a result AUD/USD bears have taken a step back and the pair is rallying.
Daily technicals signal a potential bounce, with RSI biased up after diverging.
Bulls still hold the upper hand and only a move above 0.7000 might give bulls some comfort.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 01:24 PM
USD/CAD: A Buy On Dips; Preferred Buy-In Level Sits Between 1.3250/1.3300 - TD
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 11:30 AM

TD Research discusses USD/CAD outlook and adopts a buy-on-dip strategy, looking to buy dips at 1.3250-13300.

"The backdrop continues to favor the USD across the G10, especially following this morning's lackluster data dump. CAD has also been a topical currency, reflecting some modest tailwinds on data and trade wars.

We discuss some of the drivers related to the cyclical and structural story...USDCAD runs a bit cheap to growth dynamics, suggesting that this momentum trade is likely to fizzle out like the rest over the past year," TD notes. 

"In turn, we still think that USDCAD remains a buy on dips even though the newsflows has turned a bit more positive. For USDCAD, our preferred buy-in level sits between 1.3250/1.3300.

Still, the rally in USDCNH and scope for more two-way risks ahead of the G10 suggests that CAD should outperform some China proxies like SGD, TWD or AUD in the very short-run," TD adds. 

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary
May 23 - 12:12 PM
GBP/USD - Extends North From 20-Week Low On Sub-F/c U.S. Data
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 10:15 AM
  • Cable extended north from 1.2605 to threaten 1.2663 after sub-f/c U.S. data
  • See: nN9N21F00Z. 1.2605 was 20-week low in early Ldn trade
  • 1.2663 was Wednesday's Ldn am low. 1.2685 and 1.27 resistance levels beyond
  • Offers just shy of 1.27 capped Wednesday's recovery rally from 1.2625
  • Recent GBP losses fuelled by higher risk of a no-deal Brexit nL5N22Z0PV
  • Ascent from 1.2605 aided by profit-taking on GBP shorts

GBPUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 11:00 AM
EUR/USD: What's In The Driving Seat As Correlations With Relative Rates/Yields Have broken Down - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 09:10 AM
Societe Generale Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and notes that as EUR/USD correlations with relative rates/yields have broken down, it's all about relative growth now
"When EUR/USD first started trading, it correlated with almost nothing, falling despite favourable growth and rate differentials moved in its favour. Structural and valuation concerns dominated but in due course, it settled down and correlated well with relative rates for a decade before negative rates and central bank balance sheet explosion made long-term yield differentials better indicators of where EUR/USD was going in 2015-2016," SocGen notes. 

"Since then, what has really mattered is how expectations of growth have shifted. In 2017, despite rate differentials only briefly moving to support it, the euro rallied on expectations of ECB tapering and of continued strong growth. Partly because those growth expectations were unrealistic, 2018 saw disappointment set in at the same time US growth expectations were repeatedly revised higher. That trend in relative growth expectations has continued pretty much unchecked for nearly 18 months, during which time EUR/USD has trundled lower,"SocGen adds. 

Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
May 23 - 09:48 AM
GBP: Market Focus Already Turning To What Happens After PM May - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 08:30 AM

MUFG Research discusses GBP outlook in light of the latest Brexit developments.

"The pound continues to remain under heavy selling pressure in response to building political uncertainty in the UK. EUR/GBP is on course to extend its record run to fourteen consecutive days of gains. It is now clear that Theresa May’s time as Tory leader is up. Her last ditch attempt to pass her Brexit deal has failed," MUFG notes. 

"It is inevitable now that PM May will be replaced soon and should come as no surprise. The market’s attention is already switching to what happens after PM May is replaced as leader. Leadership candidates are already positioning themselves ahead of the contest as evident by Andrea Leadsom’s decision to resign from the cabinet yesterday. The process to elect a new Tory leader is expected to be completed in the coming months. The high likelihood of new Brexiteer PM is understandably heightening fears that it will put the UK on a more confrontational course with the EU which increases the risk of a “No Deal” Brexit at the end of October. We continue to see further downside potential for the pound even after the recent sharp selloff," MUFG adds. 

BTMU Research/Market Commentary
May 23 - 08:36 AM
USD/JPY - FX Traders Accelerate USD/JPY Sales In London, Yen In Demand
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 06:35 AM
  • USD/JPY falls from 110.36 high in Asia, to break 110.00, to hit 109.99
  • Heavy net sales of USD/JPY in London, according to EBS flow data
  • USD/JPY bulls are being blocked by a key Fibo, daily cloud base
  • Recall 110.67 was this week's peak, it was posted on Tuesday
  • Yen sought as trade woes, Brexit concerns shake confidence nL4N22Z0PK
  • EUR/JPY's correlation with USD/JPY high, 30/60-day logs are +0.71/+0.65

USD/JPY EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 07:24 AM
AUD/USD - Close To 19-Week Low Amid China/U.S. Tension
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 05:10 AM
  • AUD/USD has held sub-0.69 over the past 24 hours; 0.6867 = Asian session low
  • Asia low = pip shy of Tuesday's low and two pips shy of Friday's 19-week low
  • Increased China/U.S. tension is helping weigh on the risk-sensitive AUD
  • U.S. Navy again sales through Taiwan Strait, angering China
  • China says U.S. needs to correct wrong actions to continue trade talks
  • See: nB9N22700G. Expected RBA rate cuts are also weighing on the AUD

AUDUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 06:12 AM
EUR/GBP - Extreme Trend Readings But No Bearish Divergence Yet
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 03:15 AM
  • Gain consolidation above the 200DMA line, 0.8793, but trend looks top heavy
  • Extreme readings on daily momentum and RSI call for a decent pullback
  • Widening daily Bolli lines suggest increased volatility and confirm trend
  • Bollinger volatility call could also point to direction change
  • Weeklies threat thin cloud and 100DMA, 0.8837-55 and 0.8836 respectively
  • We have a bid by 0.8725 and trend only at risk below 0.8700, 10WMA

EUR/GBP Trader:

EUR/GBP Daily Candle Chart: Click here

EUR/GBP Weekly Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
May 23 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Central Bank Intervention Set To Weigh EUR/USD Down
First appeared on eFXplus on May 23 - 03:10 AM
  • Significant drops for many Asia currencies trigger intervention
  • Bank of Korea selling dollars again today nS6N20Z02O
  • BOK is not alone. Interventions are growing. HK & Indonesia have sold USD
  • CBs usually rebalance FX reserves after, buying USD back vs G10 pairs
  • CBs usually seek value, so will look to sell EUR/USD strength, 21-DMA 1.1184
  • Low vols in majors mean rebalancing flows may have larger than usual impact

EURUSD Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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