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Nov 01 - 07:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-FX Traders Beware: GBP/USD Usually Drops In November

By Martin Miller  —  Nov 01 - 05:40 AM

GBP/USD has fallen in 14 of the past 22 Novembers, so the omens aren't great for the pound this month.

While seasonality trends should not be considered in isolation, combined with other elements they can become a powerful tool - and both technical and fundamental factors also point to renewed pressure on the pound.

GBP/USD has made a substantial recovery from September's 1.0327 record low, after Britain's ill-fated 'mini-budget'.

However, cable's medium-term bias remains negative as trading remains under key 1.1826 Fibo resistance - a 38.2% retrace of the 1.4250 to 1.0327 (June to September) drop.

The fourteen-week momentum reading is still negative, and the overall bearish outlook persists.

Lending to British consumers rose last month by less than expected and the number of mortgages approved by British lenders eased back, according to Bank of England data on Monday that point to tougher times ahead for Britain's economy.

The UK also faces tax rises as well as spending cuts.
All of that will likely put downward pressure on the pound in November.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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