The following are brief expectations for today's FOMC May policy meeting as compiled from the related notes of 10 sell-side strategy and research desks.

Overall, the Fed is universally expected to stay on hold at toady's meeting with the focus on any dissenters who may vote for a cut, and on clues from Chairman Powell's press conference on the expected pace of the easing cycle starting in July.

On the USD front, eFX's LSI Indicators show a short USD build-up in the run-up the meeting, indicating that investors may be inclined to buy EUR/USD on dips and sell USD/JPY on rallies if the USD dips post the meeting

Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs anticipates no action at the May FOMC meeting but expects the Fed to begin cutting rates by July as labor market weakness accumulates and trade-related recession risks rise. Goldman forecasts three 25bp cuts in July, September, and October, with the first move contingent on data weakness materializing over the next two months.

Credit Agricole: Credit Agricole sees room for USD stabilization or recovery following today’s FOMC if the Fed holds steady and avoids dovish surprises. Market positioning and relative valuation leave the USD primed to benefit from any reaffirmation of policy independence or divergence from other central banks. Watch for dissenters: Any votes in favor of cuts would be viewed as a dovish surprise and could weigh on the USD in the short term. Market already priced for cuts:

MUFG: The Fed is set to leave rates unchanged, so focus shifts entirely to the tone of the statement and Powell’s press conference. MUFG cautions that expecting a dollar rally from today’s FOMC may be misplaced. Even if Powell delivers a relatively hawkish message, the broader macro narrative—marked by economic uncertainty, poor sentiment, and growing expectations for Fed easing—keeps risks skewed toward further dollar weakness.

Barclays: Barclays expects no change in Fed policy at the May FOMC meeting, with Chair Powell likely to emphasize patience amid elevated uncertainty, recent inflation upticks, and weakened household and business sentiment. The FOMC is expected to signal caution but maintain a restrictive bias to keep longer-term inflation expectations anchored.

Danske: Danske expects no policy shifts at this week’s FOMC meeting an see it likely to have limited FX impact, with the USD hovering near multi-year lows. The bank maintains a tactical buy-on-dips strategy for EUR/USD and sees continued structural headwinds for the dollar.

ING: We doubt today's FOMC will prove a major market mover as the Fed continues to resist presidential pressure to cut rates. It seems the market is comfortable enough waiting for the next Fed rate cut in July, while also waiting on the hard data to determine how deeply the Fed cuts.

Morgan Stanley: No rate change expected. Balance sheet policy also likely to remain unchanged. Focus will be on forward guidance and the Fed's data-dependent posture amid policy uncertainty.

BofA: Bank of America expects no rate change at this week's May FOMC meeting, consistent with market pricing. While the Fed remains data-dependent and cautious on preemptive easing, a June cut isn't ruled out. For FX, the meeting is unlikely to be a major market move

SEB: Fed funds rate. Unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. QT. Possible further shift from Treasuries towards MBS. Guidance. We expect the Fed to avoid sending clear signals for coming meetings but highlight current large uncertainty around trade and other policies. Given this, we do not expect Chair Powell to close the door for a cut already in June in the Q&A.  Market pricing implies near zero probability for a change in May, a likely June cut (60%) and almost four cuts in 2025. 

HSBC: The May meeting will not offer any new forecasts, so the only moving parts (assuming policy is left unchanged) are the accompanying statement and the press conference. Changes to the statement are likely to be small, with the backward-looking description of the economy merely set to reflect the front-loading distortion of tariffs on activity data. Chair Powell’s press conference is unlikely to offer any concrete guidance.