• Traders betting 8bln euros on a rise are predisposed to sell

• The pair has dropped since traders turned long

• Prior short squeeze returned EUR/USD to centre of longer-term ranges

• There is less chance of a sustainable move in any direction

• Volatility may sink after return to mid-point for trade since 2021 at 1.0938

• ECB expected to cut deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25% on Apr 17

• Fed not expected to cut until July - wider gaps favours sellers

• Non spec traders may be inclined to establish carry trades by shorting euro

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EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)