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By eFXdata  —  Apr 21 - 10:24 AM

CIBC Research discusses its reaction to today's BoC policy decision.

"The Bank of Canada had some new things to say about the economy and its policy stance, most of which could be anticipated from clues dropped in recent speeches. The policy rate was of course left unchanged. A material upgrade to growth (to about 6 ½% this year, 3¾% in 2022) driven by a much better start to the year, now has the output gap closing earlier, moving the timing of the first rate hike into latter half of 2022, despite an upgrade to potential growth. Note that markets were already pricing in a second half rate hike (and our own call is for a Q4 2022 move), but there was some chance that the BoC would have nudged potential up enough to stay with a 2023 rate hike story," CIBC notes. 

"On our first take, slightly hawkish given the second half 2022 rate hike guidance, although we expect that the Fed will also end up pulling forward its hike into 2022, negating the positive impacts on the loonie," CIBC adds. 

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 21 - 09:30 AM

MUFG Research sees a scope for the EUR to outperform on a potential lifting in incoming flows.

"The turn to less favourable risk appetite yesterday that provided the US dollar with some renewed strength across G10 was less evident versus the euro and the more positive fundamental backdrop is likely to continue providing support for EUR/USD, although we would not be surprised to see the euro start to consolidate rather than extend noticeably further given the scale of recovery from the low at the end of March," MUFG notes. 

"No doubt the pessimism of just a few weeks ago fuelled by the poor vaccination roll-out has shifted as the EU authorities turn the situation around and ramp up vaccinations. Furthermore, a greater degree of resilience to lockdowns, evident in some of the macro data is also reflected in the corporate earnings upgrades. This could well result in a more favourable turn in capital flows," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Apr 21 - 07:26 AM
  • AUD/USD slide from Tuesday's peak extends overnight, 0.76985 low set

  • Risk bounces; US$ & yen sold, equities ESv1 & copper HGv1 gain

  • USD/CNH dips below 6.4900 & AUD/JPY rallies above 83.60

  • AUD/USD rallies away from the 10-DMA, 0.7730 neared ahead of NY open

  • Pair turns slightly positive on the session & a long legged doji forms

  • Bulls need break of resistance near 0.7750 to take greater control

  • No major US data; AUD/USD cues to come from yields, stocks, commodities

  • For more click on FXBUZ



aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Apr 21 - 05:35 AM

A surge in the cost of options to protect against increased USD/CAD volatility can be put down to broader risk aversion and the drop in oil and equities that fuelled a 140+ USD/CAD spike Tuesday, but premiums for Wednesday's Bank of Canada policy announcement show it's not without risk, and traders shouldn't be complacent.

The broader consensus is for the BoC to taper asset purchases from C$4 billion to C$3 billion a week.
The growth outlook and forward guidance should be more optimistic after strong Canadian data and good vaccination progress.
The BoC said in January and March that slack should be absorbed and inflation sustained above 2% going in to 2023.

However, the central bank won't want the market to start pricing early hikes, and is likely to strike a dovish tone - perhaps underlining the risk of new covid variants and potential lock-downs.

Overnight expiry USD/CAD implied volatility is 12.5 - from 9.0 Tuesday - its highest in over a month, and a break-even for vanilla straddles of C$66 pips from C$47 pips in either direction.

For more click on FXBUZ












USD/CAD overnight expiry option implied volatility Click here

1-week and 1-month USDCAD option implied volatility Click here

CAD=D3 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Apr 21 - 05:21 AM
  • Nikkei 225 index closed down over 2% due to heightened pandemic fears

  • Safety bid bolstered yen in Asia, USD/JPY hit a 7-week low nL4N2ME162

  • USD/JPY later recovered to a 108.28 EBS high in London

  • USD/JPY remains at risk of a drop under a key 107.77 Fibo nL1N2ME0EI

  • 107.77 Fibo is 38.2% of the 102.60 to 110.97 (January to March) rise

  • Dollar's decline has been halted by two major support levels nL1N2MD2Z9

  • USD/JPY, EUR/JPY 30-day log correlation remains under +0.5

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Apr 21 - 04:16 AM
  • EUR/USD 1.2043-03 EBS bringing pair closer to support levels

  • Daily Ichimoku cloud base 1.1976, 55-DMA 1.1968

  • A 23.6% retracement of Mar 31-Apr 20 rally is 1.1991

  • A 38.2% retrace (target min correction) is 1.1936

  • Apr 13 peak 1.1956, Lows Apr 14-19: 1.1940, 1.1956, 1.1951, 1.1943

  • Trend is up and fewer traders now long nL1N2MD0OQ

  • Dips into 1.1950-1.2000 may be the opportunity bulls need



EURUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Apr 21 - 03:09 AM
  • USD/JPY's sustained trading under 108.99 Fibo support is a bearish sign

  • 108.99 Fibo is 23.6% of the 102.60 to 110.97 (January to March) rise

  • The chance of a deeper setback through the 107.77 Fibo grows

  • 107.77 Fibo is 38.2% retrace of the same 102.60-110.97 gain

  • Looking to get short ahead of tenkan line at 108.92

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Previous update nL1N2M90CO

  • EUR/JPY has seen a 129.86-130.11 range on Wednesday according to EBS prices

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Apr 21 - 02:12 AM
  • Those worried about deeper USD/JPY declines might consider RKO options

  • They are considerably cheaper than regular vanilla JPY call/USD puts

  • Like vanilla call, RKO is option to sell USD/JPY at set strike and expiry

  • However, a trigger is attached below strike - option dead if trigger touched

  • Best suited for when USD/JPY downside expected to be limited

  • Moving trigger closer to strike will reduce cost further nL1N2MD0O7

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Apr 21 - 12:40 AM
  • AUD/USD consolidates with an offered tone in Asia on dour risk sentiment

  • APAC stock markets uniformly lower on rising tide of virus cases worldwide

  • Australia Mar retail sales better than expected as economy performs strongly

  • But news taken in stride as global risk-off mood prevails nL1N2ME02O

  • Downside limited as copper hovers near 10-year high, Dalian iron near record

  • Support 0.7706-08, 0.7674-79, resistance 0.7745-50, 0.7780-85

  • For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Apr 20 - 11:43 PM

  • -0.05%, low end of a 1.3928 - 1.3949 range - occasional flurries of interest

  • UK inflation data will be initial event risk in London, see chart for polls

  • UK households suffer bigger income hit than Germany and France nL8N2MD2M7

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages head north

  • 21 day Bollinger bands expand, which is a positive trending setup

  • Strong resistance above 1.4000 - range top in Feb, March - 61.8% 2021 fall

  • 1.4025 break would open the door to 1.4105, 76.4% 2021 fall

  • Prior 1.3919 April high is initial significant support

    For more click on FXBUZ


ukdata apr 21 Click here

gbp 2 apr 21 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Apr 20 - 09:41 PM
  • AUD/USD steady between 0.7720/30 after better than expected prelim-retail sales nS9N2H601V

  • AUD/USD fell Tuesday when risk assets faltered in return of COVID concerns nL4N2MD4ZB

  • Pair consolidating between 0.7717/36 after trading as high as 0.7816 Tuesday

  • Support is at the double bottom at 0.7706 with buyers ahead of 0.7700

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Apr 20 - 08:54 PM

  • Flat in a slow start to FX in Asia, after closing little changed

  • Italy in recession - economy minister sees Q1 GDP down 1.2% q/q nR1N2LL04D

  • Control of the coronavirus and a speedy vaccine rollout key for growth

  • EU set to ratchet up AI fines to 6% of turnover - EU document nL1N2MD1YX

  • Charts; momentum studies 5, 10 & 21 DMAs rise, 21 day Bolli bands expand

  • Strong positive trending signals suggest a test of 1.2116, 76.4% 2021 fall

  • Major resistance around 1.2090, 1.2084 upper 21 day Bolli, 1.2092 cloud top

  • 1.2023 NY low then 1.1971 10 DMA, a base Monday are initial supports

    For more click on FXBUZ


eur apr 21 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Apr 20 - 08:04 PM

  • Flat after closing off 0.35% on the firmer USD and profit taking

  • UK households suffer bigger income hit than Germany and France nL8N2MD2M7

  • English teams quit highly controversial Super League project nL1N2MD30Y

  • Charts; momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 daily moving averages climb

  • 21 day Bollinger bands expand, which is a positive trending setup

  • Strong resistance above 1.4000 - range top in Feb, March - 61.8% 2021 fall

  • Prior 1.3919 April high is initial significant support

  • 1.3926 - 1.3973 NY range is first support, resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp apr 21 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Apr 20 - 08:04 PM

After a buoyant finish to last week due to strong global economic data combined with fading concerns of higher inflation nL1N2M92NDnL1N2M921Q, the risk rally is starting to see a few cracks that could threaten the rally and weigh on currencies such as the Australian dollar.

Risk assets are priced for perfection and it might not take much to ignite a correction in overbought sectors of the market.
Recent volatility in crypto currencies nL1N2MD21BnL1N2MD1EZhas some analysts on edge and Netflix's disappointing after-hours results might expose the 'stay at home stocks' as being overpriced nL4N2MD48M.

Perhaps the biggest threat to the breathtaking 12-month rally in equities and commodities is the return of concerns related to the coronavirus pandemic.
While investors have been putting those concerns in the rear-view mirror, variants of the disease, side-effects in some vaccines and delays in rollouts in a number of countries could push back the timeline for the end of the pandemic nZ8N2K800QnL4N2M62S2nL4N2MD084.

The AUD/USD traded to 0.7816 on Tuesday, just short of the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of its 2021 drop from 0.8007 to 0.7532, at 0.7825.
While that level holds on rallies, a retreat to the 0.7550-0.7650 congestion area is likely if the rally in risk assets pauses to refresh.

For more click on FXBUZ


aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Apr 20 - 05:47 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.25% lower after a nasty reversal from the 0.7816 high

  • Risk assets fell after mood turned sour on revived COVID-19 concerns nZ8N2K800QnL1N2MD2NL

  • Risk currencies fell against USD, EUR and JPY on the negative mood change

  • Key fibo resistance at 0.7825 (61.8 of 0.8007/0.7532) validated by reversal

  • Support is found at double-bottom at 0.7706 and 10-day MA at 0.7694

  • Aus prelim-retail sales for March out today with market looking for +1.0%

  • Key in Asia will be mood in AXJ equities and Dalian iron ore

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 20 - 03:00 PM

Credit Agricole discusses its expectations for tomorrow's BoC policy meeting.

"We believe that FX investors are cautious ahead of the April BoC meeting. Ahead of the meeting, investors expect the MPC to announce the start of its QE taper. In our view, a reduction in the pace of asset purchases could be indeed announced this week but it is likely to be justified by the recent peak of government debt issuance related to the official pandemic relief effort. Moreover, the BoC could push against the recent frontloading of rate hike expectations," CACIB notes. 

"Also this week, focus will be on the Canadian CPI data for March. With many positives in the price already, the CAD could be vulnerable to any dovish surprises from the BoC and/or downside surprises from the incoming data," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Apr 20 - 03:22 PM
  • Downtrend's break of 23.6% Fibo of 2021's rise at 109 has stalled near 108

  • But Tuesday's recovery attempt was rejected below last week's 108.61 lows

  • Next support is by the 38.2% Fibo at 107.77, and nearby 55-DMA and cloud top

  • But below there the 50% Fibo and weekly cloud top by 106.78 are the focus

  • Bearish bias while below 109 and the 30-DMA and kijun at 109.25/47 on EBS

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Apr 20 - 02:37 PM
  • USD/JPY probed below 108 props for a second day, but bounces faded

  • Drop in Treasury yields amid risk-off flows a limited drag

  • USD and JPY both seen as havens, nice rebound in yen on the crosses

  • False dawn for USD/JPY longs with bounce to 108.545 on EBS nL1N2MD1HK

  • 38.2% Fibo of 2021's rise at 107.77 & nearby 55-DMA are next key supports

  • Daily cloud top also rises to 107.74 on Wednesday

  • Bears in control while below the broken 23.6% and tenkan by 109

  • Focus now on whether today's drop in major equity markets persists

  • Prices becoming positively correlated to S&Ps, were negative in Feb-Mar

  • ECB, Fed and BOJ meetings this week and next

  • 50%/61.8% Fibo's at 106.78/5.79 eyed if risk-off flows accelerate

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Apr 20 - 01:57 PM
  • AUD/USD rallies above the daily cloud overnight, hits 0.7816 on D3

  • Risk then sours; US$ & yen get bought, equities ESv1, copper HGv1 sink

  • AUD/USD opens NY near 0.7780; risk-off intensifies, AUD/JPY sinks near 83.50

  • AUD/USD choppy in early NY but bears rein, pair dips below 0.7725 late

  • Large daily inverted hammer, diverging daily RSI are tech warnings for longs

  • AUD/USD longs now in distress but shorts are encouraged nL1N2MD1NO

  • For more click on FXBUZ




aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 20 - 01:30 PM

NAB Research discusses AUD outlook and adopts a bullish bias over the coming months.

"Two of the key drivers of AUD volatility, namely risk sentiment and commodity prices, have been supportive of latest AUD gains...A key influence here, alongside China commodity demand remaining robust, is that optimism toward fuller global economic re-opening come H2 2021 proves justified," NAB notes.

"Looked at through the USD lens, this month’s pull-back in the USD and the likelihood of more to come is also supportive of our prevailing forecast for AUD/USD revisiting the 0.80 level around mid-year and moving into a modestly higher (0.80-0.85) trading range come H2 2021," NAB adds. 

Source:
NAB Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Apr 20 - 12:04 PM
  • AUD/USD rallies to a new 1-month high & hits 0.7816 on D3

  • Rally stalls short of the 61.8% Fibo of 0.8007-0.7533, drop ensues

  • Risk sours; equities ESv1, copper HGv1, bond yields drop sharply

  • Broad based US$ buying takes hold, USD/CNH CNH= lifts above 6.5000

  • AUD/USD turns negative, nears the 55-DMA, hits 0.7730 intra-day low

  • A large daily inverted hammer forms & daily RSI diverges on the high

  • Both signals are key warnings for recently established AUD/USD longs

  • April 15 & 19 daily lows, 55-DMA are support, stops likely sit below

  • Break of those supports could lead longs to exit, see 21-DMA test

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 20 - 10:45 AM

Bank of America Global Research discusses its expectations for this week's ECB policy meeting on Thursday.

"No fireworks from the ECB, wait for the June meeting. Good news on NGEU and reopening could lead to policy mistake. We are concerned about a mini taper-tantrum into June given lack of clarity on policy reaction function," BofA adds. 

"We see no EUR impact before more clarity on the Strategy Review, which can go either way," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Paul Spirgel  —  Apr 20 - 10:21 AM

Sterling retreated after hitting a six-week high of 1.4009 but found support above the daily cloud top by 1.3944, where bulls are likely to regroup for another run higher against the vulnerable dollar.

The rise above 1.40 left sterling enthusiasts optimistic nL1N2MD0ZF, especially after UK employment data EM supports the 2021 UK recovery narrative on the back of rapid vaccination success.

GBP spec positioning 1096742NNET is once again rising, underpinned by markets' deference to Fed promises to maintain accommodative policies through rising U.S. growth and expectations that accelerating inflation will prove transitory.

However, without fresh UK-centric impetus, GBP traders may begin to unwind recent longs accumulated over the past six months, when cable rose 7.8%.

Sterling will encounter resistance at the Feb. 26 high of 1.4021, followed by 1.4105, the 76.4% Fib of the recent 1.4240-1.3670 range.
More significant resistance comes at 1.4240, sterling's 2021 and 3-year high.

Bears need a dip below the daily cloud and multiple moving averages.A move below the 100-DMA by 1.3719 would open the way for a more protracted decline toward February lows by 1.3566.
For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Apr 20 - 09:32 AM

Danske Research discusses its expectations for this week's ECB policy meeting on Thursday.

"For EUR/USD, this week's focus will be ECB, the release of PMIs and broad dollar momentum. On the latter, we think tactical momentum is getting stretched negative. At the last meeting, ECB's optimism did spill over to EUR but given also the recent rally in spot from 1.17 to nearly 1.20, we would argue there is less scope to turn the tactical story even more positive," Danske notes. 

"On net, we think that optimism towards the euro area is well priced in to inflation- and earnings expectations as well as FX. That said, if the discussion on PEPP drives European yields higher, we could see some effect on spot fx too," Danske adds. 

Source:
Danske Research/Market Commentary
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