Those that expect a decline in EUR/USD, something it usually does in January, should look very closely at the daily technical chart.
EUR/USD seasonal performance since 2000 shows it has fallen in January for 15 of the past 24 years.
However, seasonality patterns should not be considered in isolation.
EUR/USD needs a break and daily close under the 1.0875 Fibo, a 38.2% retracement of the 1.0448 to 1.1139 (October to December) EBS rise, in order to increase the odds of it closing in negative territory in January.
EUR/USD's 14-day momentum remains negative, reinforcing the overall bearish market structure.
The dollar ing to underpin EUR/USD in the short-term.
A EUR/USD break and close above the daily tenkan line at 1.0981, the mid-point of the last nine trading sessions, could well put January's seasonal trend in jeopardy.
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