Societe Generale Research likes short NZD/USD into tonight's RBNZ policy meeting.

"The currency that is most striking in the CFTC chart, is the AUD. The market built up the biggest long AUD position since 2013, growing it in recent weeks despite a wobble at the start of April. 5y yields have fallen by 30bp in recent weeks as the economic outlook has deteriorated and end-2026 rate-pricing has dropped by 20bp this month," SocGen notes.

"If a credible cease-fire extension is agreed, AUD seems bound to rally, but there is a lot of good news hard-wired rather than baked into the current AUD/USD price. AUD/NZD would be more attractive, if it weren’t for the fact that this pair is up 13% in the last year. Maybe the answer is simply to short NZD/USD ahead of what will probably be a dovish hold by the RBNZ tonight," SocGen adds.