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Jul 31 - 09:55 AM

Credit Agricole: Month-End Fixing Points to USD Selling; Long EUR vs USD and GBP Into The Fix

By eFXdata  —  Jul 31 - 08:54 AM

Credit Agricole, a major financial institution, provided insights based on the patterns observed in their month-end fixing model.

Key Points:

  1. Equity Market Moves: Adjustments for market capitalisation and FX performance during the month indicate that there have been certain shifts in equity markets.

  2. Portfolio-Rebalancing Flows: The movements observed hint at a likelihood of mild USD selling across all fronts during the month-end portfolio rebalancing.

  3. Corporate Flow Model: Credit Agricole's model suggests a bias towards buying the EUR at the month's end.

  4. Combined Strategy: Factoring in the indications from their corporate flow model, Credit Agricole recommends buying the EUR. This strategy pits the EUR against a basket that has equal weightings of USD and GBP.

In Summary:

Credit Agricole's month-end fixing model, after accounting for this month's equity market adjustments, predicts slight USD selling. Their corporate flow model leans towards EUR purchasing, leading to a strategy of acquiring the EUR against an equal mix of USD and GBP.

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary


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