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Nov 20 - 11:00 PM
AUD/USD - Bounces As Equities Climb Off Early Lows
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 09:15 PM
  • Asian equity markets recovering from lows and S&P futures up 0.35%
  • NYMEX Crurde up around 1.4% and helping to settle risk assets
  • AUD/USD traded to 0.7202 early, but now bouncing with risk
  • Pair trading at 0.7230 with resistance at 10-day MA at 0.7245

aud/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 09:48 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Move Opens The Door To Further Losses
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 08:20 PM

A potentially bearish key outside reversal day for the EUR/USD on Tuesday has defined important resistance and levels that need to break to trigger the next moves in either direction.
The bearish reversal would be confirmed with a close tonight below Tuesday's low at 1.1359.
The key resistance levels at 1.1500/16 have been confirmed by Tuesday's price action: 1.1500 was the pullback high on November 7 and 1.1516 is the 50 percent retracement of the decline from 1.1815 to 1.1216.
On the downside, key support lies at last week's low of 1.1216 and 1.1186, the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the entire January 2017-February 2018 rise.
The euro move higher late last week has left technical signals mixed - the 5-day moving average has crossed above the 10- and 21-day averages, while slow stochastics have crossed lower.
This suggests a period of consolidation between 1.1200 and 1.1500, with a break of key levels mentioned above the trigger for the next move.
A weekly close below the 200-week moving average at 1.1313 would be the first sign that a downside break is imminent.

EUR daily: Click here

EUR weekly: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 08:36 PM
GBP/USD - May's Support Grows, But Negative Signals Build
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 06:55 PM
  • Flat early after closing -0.5%, led by broad USD risk off strength
  • Polls show voters support for May firming - UK Times Click here

  • BoE's Carney spelt out the negative impact of a no deal Brexit nL8N1XV1V5
  • Fall leaves momentum studies slipping - 5, 10 & 21 DMAs set to trend lower
  • Three days of consolidation, but the negative signals are building
  • Test of major 1.2697/1.2725, October and November lows looks likely
  • Close above 1.2897, 38.2% of Nov fall would end downside bias

gbp nov 21 Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 05:00 PM
GBP: UK Leadership Challenge Falling Short; All Adds Up To Range-Bound EUR/GBP - SocGen
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 12:30 PM

Societe Generale Research discusses GBP outlook in light of the latest development with regarding to the UK leadership challenge.

"UK Conservative rebels have fallen short of garnering the signatures need to mount a leadership contest. If getting 48 signatures is this hard, the chances of ousting the Prime Minister are even harder. But at the same time, the DUP is flexing its muscles, and whether the current deal can get through the House of Commons remains doubtful. ‘A deal' is still more likely than no deal, but there are plenty of twists and turns left

For the pound, it all adds up to a range-bound EUR/GBP despite the elevated vol and stretched risk reversals. GBP/USD is supported by EUR/USD and by the dip in US bond yields, which may yet squeeze some more sterling bears out of their positions," SocGen argues. 




Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 03:48 PM
AUD/USD - Soured Risk & Greenback Gains Dent Bulls
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 01:35 PM
  • Equities dive & JPY bid sinks AUD/JPY, AUD/USD heavy in NY
  • US 10-yr yield dives to new low but rebounds sharply, boosts US$
  • AUD/USD breaks below 10-DMA, daily cloud top & Nov 15 low
  • Daily techs suggest lower levels due, RSI biased down, 0.7160 support eyed
  • Slew of US data Wed, if weak prints seen greenback's bounce likely reverses

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 02:36 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD: Dented, But Not Totaled
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 01:15 PM

AUD/USD's rally off its October low has taken a hit today, but bulls shouldn't throw in the towel just yet.
Admittedly, broad-based U.S. dollar buys, the bounce in U.S. Treasury yields, weak emerging market currencies and a rebound in USD/CNH have combined to pressure the Aussie dollar.
As a result, action has led to breaks of the daily cloud top and the 10-DMA, while the daily RSI deepens its bear bias.
Therefore, should today's negative factors persist, a test of key support near 0.7160 is likely.
That said, AUD/USD longs may still attempt to dig in.
This as expectations for Fed rate hikes are being pared back.
Indeed, Fed funds and Eurodollar futures do not align with projected Fed rate hikes which should limit the scope of any greenback rallies.
Positioning will favor bulls as well since net-long U.S. dollar and net-short Aussie unwinds are likely to extend.
Monthly technicals also suggest higher levels.
The RSI is biased up and the 23.6 Fib of the 2018 down trend was pierced.
Thus, unless support near 0.7160 breaks, near-term upside potential remains for AUD/USD.

chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 01:24 PM
EUR/USD: S/T Upside Limited; Rallies A Sell For Initial Target Of 1.1095 - ING
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 11:15 AM

ING Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and maintains a 'down' rating on a multi-days basis.

"The short-term upside potential is very limited with overhead resistance in the long-term downtrend coming in between the declining MA-50 line at 1.1505, the horizontal line around 1.1530 and the upper end of the long-term falling trend channel coming in around 1.1560.

Therefore, we prefer to stick to our Down rating as the next lower top should be close at hand followed by a continuation of the downtrend. There is a bullish target at 1.1520 as a result of the short-term strength, but the longer-term view remains bearish with the bearish target unchanged at 1.1095 and lower targets building," ING notes.

All in all, we recommend selling the rallies," ING adds. 

ING Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 12:12 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-Without US-China Trade Truce, USD/JPY To Test Oct Lows
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 10:10 AM

The only clear path to USD/JPY avoiding a retest of last month's 111.38 low is a seemingly unlikely U.S.-China trade war truce after Trump and Xi meet at month's end.
Without good news on trade to curtail increasing fears of a global economic slowdown and the selling of risky assets and buying of the safe-haven JPY, USD/JPY will remain under pressure from falling Treasury yields and falling Fed rate hike expectations.
Eventually rates and risky assets will be cheap enough to revive risk-on flows, but without a trade deal, any sustained rebound in rates will simply instigate another round of derisking and USD/JPY sales.
Those sales are being fueled by ill-timed USD/JPY buying from IMM specs who have loaded up on longs in October and November, just as prices were peaking near 114.
Monday's close below the 55-DMA and daily kijun and this week's range wholly below the weekly tenkan suggest at least a test of the daily Cloud base and 100-DMA at 112.16/07.
A close below those props would target October's 111.38 low and the weekly kijun at 111.33, particularly if the NASDAQ breaks February's.

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 11:00 AM
GBP: Leadership Challenge Running Out Of Steam But Relief Rallies Likely Short-Lived - MUFG
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 08:45 AM

MUFG Research discusses GBP outlook and argues that any relief rally for the pound should a leadership challenge fail to materialize in the coming days will likely prove short-lived. 

"According to reports, the attempts to stage an immediate leadership challenge are running out of momentum. The 48 letters required to trigger a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister May’s leadership have not yet materialised. It is a surprising development given that the European Research Group Chairman Jacob Rees-Mogg called for a leadership challenge late last week," MUFG notes. 

"Downing Street is reportedly studying afresh ground breaking new technology that could prevent a hard border in Ireland, which was previously known as “maximum facilitation”. A strong commitment to the “maximum facilitation” option as part of the future trade agreement may ease some concern amongst Brexiteers. However, we are not convinced it will be sufficient to ease all of their concerns over PM May’s Brexit deal including fears that the UK could be trapped into a customs arrangement with the EU indefinitely. Overall, the balance of risks for the pound remains firmly skewed to the downside in the near-term," MUFG adds. 

BTMU Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 09:48 AM
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:09 PM

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Rebound in EUR could extend further to 1.1500.

There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (19 Nov, spot at 1.1410). As highlighted, the positive price action over the past several trading days suggests the current “rebound in EUR could extend further to 1.1500”. 1.1500 is a rather strong resistance and for now, the prospect for a clear break above this level is not high. However, only a move below the 1.1355 ‘key support’ (level was at 1.1310 yesterday) would indicate that the current ‘positive’ phase in EUR has ended. Looking ahead, if there is a NY closing above 1.1500, it would suggest last week’s low near 1.1215 is a more significant bottom than currently expected. The next resistance above 1.1500 is at 1.1550 followed by the key level of 1.1580.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Prospect of a fresh low for the year has increased.

The recent high volatility has eased as GBP traded in relatively calm manner over the past couple of trading days. For now, we view the price action as part of a short-term consolidation phase and we still see risk of GBP moving below the year-to-date low at 1.2662. As indicated last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 1.2775), we expect GBP to stay under pressure unless it can move and stay above 1.2980. Until then, GBP could continue to consolidate and trade sideways for a couple more days.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Next level to focus on is at 0.7380.

There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (19 Nov, spot at 0.7310). As indicated, while upward momentum is not as ‘impulsive’ as preferred, the break of the 0.7315 resistance last Friday (16 Nov) has shifted the focus to the next major resistance at 0.7380. In view of the less than stellar momentum, 0.7380 may not come into the picture so soon. On a shorter-term note, 0.7355 is already a strong resistance level. On the downside, the ‘key support’ remains unchanged at 0.7220 (a break of this level would indicate that short-term top is in place).

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Expect further NZD strength to 0.6900. No change in view.

We indicated last Friday (16 Nov, spot at 0.6825) a “NY closing above 0.6850 would suggest further NZD strength to 0.6900”. NZD subsequently staged a surprisingly strong rise before closing at 0.6879 in NY (well above the 0.6850 level). From here, the focus is at 0.6900 and break of this level would indicate that NZD has found a mid to long-term bottom at 0.6424 last month. In other words, a break of 0.6900 would suggest the 0.6424 low would likely remain intact in the coming weeks, possibly months. Meanwhile, only a move below 0.6800 (‘key support’ previously at 0.6750) would suggest that an interim top is in place.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00.

There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (19 Nov, spot at 112.80). As highlighted, the rapid increase in downward momentum suggests there is “chance for USD to weaken further to 112.00”. This is a relatively strong support and a clear break of this level would suggest USD is ready to challenge the October low of 111.36. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ level has edged lower to 113.40 from 113.60. A break of the ‘key resistance’ would indicate that the current downward pressure in USD has eased.

UOB Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 08:36 AM
EUR/GBP - Falls To Intra-Day Low As BoE's Carney Talks Brexit
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 06:20 AM
  • EUR/GBP down to 0.8880 intra-day low as Carney talks Brexit nL8N1XV2T6
  • 0.8922 was early Europe intra-day high (0.8932 was Monday's Nov high)
  • Drop from 0.8922 influenced by higher Italian govt bond yields nL8N1XV1H2
  • 0.8870 (Monday's low) and 0.8850 (1.13 GBP/EUR) are support levels
  • GBP/USD met headwind near 1.2880 after rising from 1.2821 (intra-day low)
  • 1.2880 = intra-day high, before drop to 1.2821 on risk aversion

EURGBP: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Concern Over Italy May Frustrate EUR/USD Bulls
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 05:05 AM

Signs of heightened tension between the Italian government and the European Union over Italy's 2019 budget may frustrate EUR/USD bulls hoping the pair would build on early European gains to 1.1472 (EBS), its highest level since Nov.
7, and challenge or break 1.1500.
The early Europe high was notched before the spread of 10-year Italian government bonds over Bunds ballooned to a one-month high of 333 basis points nL8N1XV1H2 nL8N1XV1RB.
The widening of the spread comes a day before the European Commission is expected to release a report on Italy's debt -- which at 130 percent of national output is proportionally the highest in the euro zone after Greece's.
The report could be the first step towards a disciplinary procedure that could eventually lead to fines on Italy, the euro zone's third-largest member nL8N1XU4Q9.
1.1500 was the EUR/USD high on Nov.
7: some stops on short positions are believed to be sheltering above that level.
Related comments:

EURUSD: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - A USD/JPY Close Below A Key Fibo Will Expose The Cloud Base
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 03:55 AM
  • USD/JPY remains weak as Fri's biggest one-day (EBS) fall since July weighs
  • A daily close below 112.46 Fibo would expose the daily cloud base at 112.16
  • 112.46 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of 111.38 to 114.21 (Oct to Nov) rise
  • We are looking to get short on near-term recovery attempts to 112.85
  • The daily cloud top, now at 112.95, should cap near-term gains
  • Large black candle since a very ominous sign ,

USD/JPY Trader:

Daily Ichimoku Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 05:00 AM
EUR/USD - Bulls March Higher Now Focused On A Key Fibo
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 03:10 AM
  • EUR/USD's rise persists with a daily close above the 30-DMA at 1.1422
  • Also closed above 1.1445 Fibo, a 38.2% of the 1.1500 to 1.1216 Nov drop
  • Scope growing for gains towards the 1.1500 Nov peak
  • Above 1.1500 will unmask 1.1516 Fibo, 50% of the same 1.1500 to 1.1216 drop
  • We have raised our bid to 1.1405 to take advantage of near-term dips
  • EUR/USD bullish after Nov's 2nd biggest one-day gain

EUR/USD Trader:

Daily Fibo Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 03:48 AM
GBP/USD - Fails Ahead Of 38.2% Fibo, Hint Of Increasing Supply
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 20 - 02:30 AM
  • Correction runs it course and the return of an offered market
  • 21DMA fade might be out of reach as Monday's doji hints at increased supply
  • Stochs still flat lining while bull momentum fades
  • Note, 10DMA lining up a bear cross below the 21DMA
  • Monday failure ahead of 1.2897 Fibo, 1.3176-1.2725: 50% comes at 1.2951
  • Favouring the short side but waiting for a more complete bear signal

GBP/USD Trader:

EUR/GBP Trader:

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 02:36 AM
EUR/USD - Consolidates Monday Gains In Quiet Asia
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:20 PM
  • EUR/USD traded in a 1.1443/58 range in quiet Asian trading
  • Risk assets remained offered in Asia as US/China trade tensions in focus
  • EUR/USD keying off US Treasury yields which were unchanged in Asia
  • Resistance at 1.1500/15, which may contain rallies - barring fresh catalyst
  • Support at 21-day MA at 1.1376 and 10-day MA ay 1.1359

eur/usd Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 20 - 01:24 AM
JPY: Short JPY-Crosses Better Risk-Off Hedge Than Short USD/JPY S/T - Barclays
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 04:00 PM

Barclays Research discusses the JPY outlook and prefers downside in JPY crosses than in USD/JPY to express a hedge for risk-off moves in the near-term.

"Shorting XXXJPY rather than USD/JPY will likely remain a more effective hedge against general risk-off moves for the time being, but a diversification from the cumulative risk in USD should gradually exert downside pressure on the USD, weakening its safe-haven status, and re-strengthen the correlation between USD/JPY and risk assets," Barclays argues. 

Barclays Research/Market Commentary
Nov 20 - 12:12 AM
USD/JPY - Consolidates Along Upward Trajectory, 112 To Hold
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 10:15 PM
  • USD/JPY bobs as Nikkei attempts recovery; US yields hold USD down
  • BOJ says no need for further QE, but no exit either
  • Still inside Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone 112.16-112.95
  • 112.00 support backed up by rising trendline now at 111.95
  • Earlier USD/AXJ bids on stocks selloff abates as US yields drop
  • US 10y teasing a further drop to 3.00% from current 3.07%

JPY: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 11:00 PM
EUR/USD - Steps Over Bullish Threshold But Limited Room Above
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 09:15 PM
  • EUR/USD broke downtrend last week, enters bullish path on EBS data
  • Positive close on Mon confirms Bollinger uptrend channel in play
  • Trajectory will turn on breach of Ichimoku Cloud resistance 1.1575
  • But failure to cross Cloud could mean swift correction lower
  • Fundamentals for USD diminish as Treasury yields under assault
  • Risk off on Wall St driving investors toward haven bonds; 10y at 3.066%

EUR: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
Nov 19 - 09:48 PM
AUD/USD - RBA Minutes Upbeat But Balanced As Expected
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 19 - 07:40 PM
  • RBA Minutes upbeat as expected, but continued to note sluggish wage growth
  • Repeated that next move in rates likely up rather than down
  • RBA Minutes unlikely to shift expectations that a change is a long way off
  • RBA starting to factor potential impacts of trade protectionism in forecast
  • AUD/USD barley moved following Minutes and is just below 0.7300

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets
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