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By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 02 - 02:37 AM
  • Yesterday EUR/USD broke and closed below daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.2054

  • Pair reached 1.2028, closed 1.2049 then today broke 100-DMA at 1.2027

  • Asia's range 1.2005-50 EBS, Europe's high is 1.2027, the 100-DMA

  • Likely to see progression towards lower 20-Day Bollinger band 1.1982

  • 2021 low at 1.1952 exposed by this week's bearish breaks

  • Traders still hold many bullish bets ($21bln)

  • Correction targets: 50% Nov-Jan rise 1.1975, 61.8% 1.1887, 76.4% 1.1778

EURUSD Click here

EURUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Mar 02 - 02:10 AM
  • Four day slide just dips below the 21DMA and our 1.3895 bid filled

  • Counter bias trade looks for return to the high 1.41s with a sub-1.38 stop

  • Feb 17 1.3830 low seen pivotal; bears cement control below

  • 61.8% Fibo at 1.3823 off 1.3566-1.4240 climb: 76.4% retrace at 1.3725

  • Topside and the 10DMA the initial hurdle, 1.3990

  • 14-day bull momentum fades significantly: RSI sharply lower from o/b levels

GBP/USD Trader:

GBP/USD daily candle chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 02 - 02:07 AM
  • Mon's close under the broken cloud, which spans 1.2074-1.2162, negative sign

  • EUR/USD suffered a setback after a large upper shadow on Thur's candle

  • Dropped a whopping 107 pips Fri -- the biggest one-day fall since April 2020

  • A large upper shadow on a daily candle signifies an upside rejection

  • Thursday also saw the market fail above 1.2197 Fibonacci level = bull trap

  • 1.2197 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 1.2349 to 1.1952 (Jan to Feb)

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334 Previous update nL2N2KY0NA

Daily Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Krishna K  —  Mar 01 - 11:53 PM
  • AUD/USD rises from day low of 0.7737 as RBA says committed to yield target

  • Central bank to buy more bonds if needed to keep 3-year yield at 0.1% target

  • To make further adjustments to purchases in response to market conditions

  • 3-year yield edges lower to 0.137 as bond markets calmer after recent rout

  • Focus turns to AU Dec quarter GDP due Wed, expected to grow 2.5%

  • AUD upside limited as U.S. yields remain elevated on U.S. economic optimism

  • Resistance 0.7790-0.7800, 0.7820-25, support 0.7620-25,0.7695-0.7705, 0.7670

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 01 - 10:02 PM
  • EUR/USD opened 0.17% lower at 1.2049 after strong US ISM underpinned USD

  • EUR/USD failed to lift when E-minis and Asian equities moved up early

  • E-minis drifted back into negative territory and USD moved broadly higher

  • EUR/USD fell below the 100-day MA at 1.2027 and Feb 17 low at 1.2023

  • Low so far is 1.2015 and it is hovering just above into the afternoon

  • The next support of note is the Feb 5 low at 1.1952

  • The break below the 100-day MA suggests a top is in at 1.2243

  • EUR/USD needs to break back above 10-day MA at 1.2103 to avoid deeper fall

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 01 - 09:08 PM
  • USD broadly firmer in Asia and AUD/USD is leading the way

  • AUD/USD down 0.25% with the low so far at 0.7750

  • There doesn't seem to be a catalyst as Asian equities mostly higher

  • AUD/USD below the 21-day MA (0.7761 with next support at 55-day MA at 0.7708

  • RBA decision is at 14:30 Sydney time and it could spark some volatility

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 01 - 07:39 PM
  • AUD/USD little changed around 0.7760 after a batch of mixed economic data

  • Aus current account surplus higher than expected while building approvals worse than expected nAZN07WS00nAZN06WS00

  • Net exports impact on GDP not as negative as expected nAZN07WS01

  • Market will look ahead to RBA decision later today with focus on statement

  • AUD/USD support is at the 55-day MA at 0.7708 - which held yesterday

  • Resistance is at the 38.2 fibo of 0.8007/0.7692 at 0.7812

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Mar 01 - 07:23 PM
  • Flat, closed -0.2%, as risk rebounded with lower EZ yields nL2N2KZ0M4

  • Positive risk extends, E-mini S&P +0.2%, UST yields flat and Nikkei +0.7%

  • ECB's bond buying activity last week confused markets nL5N2KZ2XH

  • Two day dip has turned the daily signals into negative territory

  • Sustained break of the 1.2091 21 DMA to test 1.1985 lower 21 day Bolli band

  • Bearish 5 & 10 DMA cross with 5, 10 & 21 DMAs falling suggests more losses

  • A move towards 1.1952 2021 low looks viable on the daily chart

  • NY 1.2028 - 1.2070 range looks safe in Asian today

eur mar 2 Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Mar 01 - 05:35 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.74% higher, as AUD gained against all major currencies

  • The big rally in global equities and bounce in EM assets underpinned nL2N2KZ2XG

  • AUD/USD support at the 55-day MA at 0.7708 validated by price action

  • Resistance is at the 38.2 of 0.8007/0.7692 at 0.7812 and 10-day MA at 0.7831

  • RBA decision today with no change expected - focus will be on statement nL3N2KZ01K

  • Aus building approvals and current account out today but unlikely to impact

  • RBA may emphasize risks to temper yields - which may weigh on AUD slightly

  • For more click on FXBUZ

aud/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 01 - 02:56 PM
  • USD/JPY's near August's 107.05 high & 61.8% Fibo of Jun-Jan drop at 107.08

  • Daily RSIs already O/B in mid-70s on the approach to the key resistance

  • Weekly RSIs are at their highest since November 2018

  • Potential fade trade @107.05, stop past 161.8% Fibo off Jan's base @107.32

  • The 100-WMA at 107.26 also provides backstopping

  • Decent risk-vs-reward on a slide to 50% Fibo & Feb. 17 high at 106.22

For more click on FXBUZ

Chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 01 - 02:43 PM

The dollar rose to three-week highs on Monday but failed to push the euro below its 100-day moving average even with the help of strong U.S. ISM manufacturing nN9N2H701Y and construction spending nL1N2KW3DZ data, as well as ECB unease with the recent rebound in euro zone yields nL2N2KZ1OG

EUR/USD fell from last Thursday's high of 1.22435 on EBS to Monday's low of 1.2028.
A clear break below the 100-DMA at 1.2025 and February's 1.1952 low could put in play the 200-DMA at 1.1796.

Euro zone and Asian PMIs also recovered in February, though China lost some momentum nL2N2KZ0JJ.

Ten-year Treasury-Bund yield spreads fell 7bp from Friday's close, plumbing their lowest in a year.

A new U.S. COVID-19 vaccine nL3N2KZ2W9 and $1.9trln in relief spending nL2N2KZ10A are expected to accelerate the U.S. economy.
Global growth expectations allowed reflation trades to recover from February's month-end jitters tied to surging government bond yields.

Supply-chain disruptions heading into the expected surge in U.S. economic growth are raising inflation concerns, but the Fed appears unworried.

Major central banks are seen maintaining low or negative policy rates while also being expected to step in to keep longer-term yields from rising so fast they undermine financial market stability and the pandemic recovery.

Sterling's slide from last week's peak near long-term hurdles probed the daily kijun and 50% Fibo of February's 1.3566-4240 advance at 1.3903.
The retracement has been slowed by BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden downplaying negative rates contingency planning nL2N2KZ1E0, with prices still well above the uptrend-defining 55-day moving average at 1.3695.

USD/JPY climbed toward 107.05/08 hurdles with the help of rising Treasury-JGB yields and the squeezing of spec shorts accumulated largely in the 102.595-5.68 range.
Prices are getting overbought on daily and weekly RSIs as prices near August's rebound high and the 61.8% Fibo of the June-January slide at 107.05/08 on EBS.
The 161.8% Fibo-projected top off January's 102.599-4.40 base is at 107.32 nL2N2KZ21Y.

High-beta currencies and cryptocurrencies gained against the dollar and other major reserve currencies in line with the recovery in stocks and other riskier assets.

AUD/USD rebounded ahead of Friday's risk-off lows by the 55-DMA after RBA yield curve control sent Australian 10-year bond yields down 22bp at one stage nL2N2KZ1AZ ahead of Tuesday's policy meeting and after overnight reports of surging home prices and job ads at their highest since October 2018 nL2N2KZ00W.

The economic calendar heats up again Wednesday with ADP, ISM services and the beige book report.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Thursday and Friday's non-farm payrolls report follow.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Mar 01 - 01:42 PM
  • EUR/USD falls sharply in Europe am on US$ bid, NY opens near 1.2045

  • US$ falls early & DE inflation above estimates nL2N2KZ15M, EUR/USD lifts

  • 1.2070 trades on EBS but US$ bid returns after upbeat ISM data nL2N2KZ1LN

  • EUR/USD hits 1.2028 (EBS) but settles near 1.2040 late in the session

  • Buoyant UST yields, sharp oil drop help keep EUR/USD near the day's low

  • 76.4% Fib of 1.1952-1.22435, Feb 8 & 17 lows still under threat

  • Techs are bearish, pair below 10 & 21-DMAs and daily cloud, RSIs fall

  • EUR/USD could be set for a slide toward the 200-DMA nL2N2KZ1OG

  • For more click on FXBUZ

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 01 - 01:30 PM

NAB Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and sees the pair's gains limited in the near-term.

"The US economic outperformance year to date has resulted in a move up in the 10y UST-JGB real spread, this means that near term USD/JPY can spend a bit of time above ¥1.06," NAB notes. 

"But if the move up in the spread is a function of relative economic outperformance, a change in Japan’s economic fortunes would favour the pair heading back towards ¥1.04 over the coming month," NAB adds. 

NAB Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Mar 01 - 12:21 PM
  • EUR/USD sinks to an 8-day low, slide stalls near key 1.2020/25 support

  • 76.4% Fib of 1.1952-1.20435, Feb 8 & 17 daily lows sit in that zone

  • RSI imply bear momentum intact but a daily doji candle forms

  • Doji suggests a bounce could be due, will give bears a rally to sell

  • Rally sellers likely lurk near the 10-DMA & 1.2105/10 resistance zone

  • Additional sellers likely sitting near the 55-DMA & daily cloud top

  • 1.2020/25 support looks likely to break, Feb low is then targeted

  • For more click on FXBUZ

eur/usd Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 01 - 10:45 AM

 Bank of America Global Research discusses JPY outlook and now w forecast USD/JPY at 104 for mid-year and 106 for year-end. BofA forecasts EUR/JPY at 122 for year-end.

"As US rates have risen, USD/JPY has responded. Will higher US rates boost USD/JPY as it did in 2013 before QE3 tapering or in 2018 when USD/JPY was supported by higher US rates despite general JPY strength?," BofA notes. 

"We think three factors will limit JPY’s downside in 2021 and increase the risk of a JPY rally in case of a correction in the equity market: • Low FX carry compared to 2013 and 2018 .  • Stretched positioning in risk assets, outpacing the economic cycle • Less unhedged demand for US assets (pension rebalancing complete, lifers focus on hedged bonds)," BofA adds. 

BofA Global Research
By Rob Howard  —  Mar 01 - 09:39 AM
  • Bids ahead of 1.3900 based cable after it broke below 1.3928 (Ldn am low)

  • 1.3962 = subsequent rally high. 1.3997 was Ldn am high nL2N2KZ0ZX

  • Support points below 1.39 include 1.3890 (Friday's low) and 1.3873 (21DMA)

  • Friday's low was nearly three cents below Thursday's high nL2N2KZ0KB

  • BoE moves on negative rates are contingency planning - Ramsden nL9N2JS01G

  • Senate Democrats drop minimum wage plan for COVID relief bill nL2N2KZ10A

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 01 - 09:45 AM

Citi discusses its expectations for tonight's RBA policy meeting. 

"The RBA is likely to send a more dovish message at its meeting this week given continued AUD strength and the sharp rise in Australian yields," Citi notes. 

"Bigger picture though, CitiFX Strategy highlights that this recent front-loading of QE is another marginally dovish sign that could see tactical underperformance of AUD, though the team remains bullish on the currency on a medium-term basis and think that post-RBA, there may be more opportune entry points for a bullish conviction," Citi adds. 

Citi Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 01 - 09:01 AM

Credit Suisse discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and adopts a neutral bias with a downside tilt in the near-term.

"With the market back below falling short - and medium -term averages this suggests we are set for a much lengthier sideways phase, albeit now with an immediate downside bias. Whilst 1.2140 caps the immediate risk is seen lower with support seen at 1.2023 mid -February low. Below here can further reinforce the negative tone for a retest of 1.1952/45 – the February low and 23.6% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 bull trend," CS notes. 

"Above 1.2140 can ease the immediate downside bias but with a break above 1.2185 needed for strength back to 1.2237/43. Beyond this latter area is needed to reassert the broader uptrend again, for a move back to 1.2345/55," CS adds. 

Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Mar 01 - 07:33 AM
  • Cable topped out at 1.3977 after rallying off 1.3928 (Ldn am intra-day low)

  • 1.3997 (early Ldn high) was the origin of the drop to 1.3928 nL2N2KZ0KB

  • USD index rose to three-week high during the London morning (91.127)

  • 1.3999 was GBP/USD high in Asia, after climb from 1.3931 nL2N2KZ06B

  • Friday's low was 1.3890 -- before hawkish Haldane lifted GBP nL8N2KW4LB

  • IMM speculators raise net GBP long position to 51-week high nL2N2KZ0GJ

GBPUSD Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Mar 01 - 05:47 AM
  • Big gains for FX volatility premium last week nL2N2KZ0K8, setbacks limited

  • Cable's benchmark 1-month implied volatility up 3.0 from mid Feb low to 9.5

  • Minor setback to 8.8 meets buyers - perceived risk of more actual volatility

  • Risk reversals added premium for GBP puts over calls last week, and hold it

  • 1-month 0.4 to 0.9 - new 2021 high - shows downside GBP fears remain high

  • UK budget Wed's, Fed speakers, and U.S jobs data all add to near-term risk

For more click on FXBUZ

GBP/USD 1-month implied volatility Click here

1-3-12-Month GBP/USD risk reversals Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Mar 01 - 04:36 AM
  • EUR/USD options maintain a high volatility and downside risk premium

  • It shows actual volatility risk high, and dealers wary of spot weakness

  • Benchmark 1-month implied vol spiked 6.0-7.0 Thurs-Fri, setbacks stall 6.6

  • That's 1.0 above 1-month daily historic - its fair value measure

  • 1-month risk reversals show EUR put over EUR call premium at 0.3 Fri/Mon

  • That's Feb high for downside over upside strikes, previously seen June 2020

  • Related comment nL2N2KZ0K8

For more click on FXBUZ

Benchmark 1-month EUR/USD implied volatility well above its daily historic Click here

EUR/USD 1-3-12-month expiry option risk reversals Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 01 - 03:37 AM

There are good reasons why demand has been strong for AUD/USD in the first quarter of 2021 nL1N2KS32Q.
But those bullish on the pair should tread carefully as the quarter draws to a close.

While AUD/USD has ended in positive territory 13 of the past 21 first quarters, it often falters in March.
AUD/USD's March performance since 2000 shows it has dropped in 12 of the past 21 years, possibly due to FX traders taking profits on their first-quarter gains.

AUD/USD rose on Monday, as a sell-off last week in global bonds on worries about eventual monetary policy tightening appeared to have eased for now nL2N2KZ05G.
The Reserve Bank of Australia boosted the size of its daily quantitative-easing programme on Monday nL2N2KZ00W.

AUD/USD's big setback from last week's 0.8007 peak, the highest traded since early 2018, weighs heavily.
There is a good chance for a bigger setback through the 2021 low of 0.7564 in the weeks ahead.

For more click on FXBUZ

AUD/USD March Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly Chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Mar 01 - 02:36 AM
  • Implied volatility is option market measure of expected/actual volatility

  • It was ramped significantly higher in all pairs last week nL1N2KW1PD

  • Mild setbacks Monday, but short term risk for AUD is RBA Tues nL3N2KZ01K

  • Overnight (Tues) expiry implied volatility still very high at 19.5

  • Break-even for vanilla straddle is $63-pips in either direction

  • It peaked 26.0 last week - up from 14.0 average over recent weeks

    For more click on FXBUZ

AUD/USD overnight expiry implied volatility Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Burton Frierson  —  Mar 01 - 02:02 AM

Repeats with no changes

  • EUR net spec long slightly lower at 138,365 from previous week's 140,006

  • GBP net spec long jumped to 30,978, highest since March 2020, from previous week's 22,167

  • AUD net spec short diminished at 1,636 vs previous week's short of 2,821

  • JPY net spec long drops to 28,622 from previous week's 37,182

  • CHF long 11,523 vs previous week's 8,371

EUR net spec position: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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