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Bank of America Global Research discusses its EUR outlook and trading bias in the near-term.
"EUR-G10 FX price action this year has been broadly in line with recent history. EUR screens as overvalued vs NZD and, to a lesser extent, CAD, GBP, SEK, and as slightly undervalued vs JPY, NOK, AUD. EUR-USD has been in line with recent history," BofA notes.
"Our commodities team sees energy markets as pricing a best-case scenario. Combined with strong US data, this keeps us cautious on EUR-USD near term. We would not rush to buy EUR vs JPY, nor sell vs GBP, given somewhat underpriced UK political risks. Meanwhile, SEK remains our preferred de-escalation hedge, also supported Sweden's fiscal stimulus," BofA adds.
