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Jun 06 - 09:55 AM

Goldman Sachs: We Expect Below-Consensus Job Growth in May NFP Print; Here Are the Details

By eFXdata  —  Jun 06 - 08:30 AM

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs predicts a lower-than-expected increase in May nonfarm payrolls (NFP), anticipating 160k new jobs. This outlook includes projections for both private and government sector employment, wage growth, and unemployment rates.

Key Points:

  1. Job Growth Forecast:

    • Goldman Sachs expects a total increase of 160k in May NFP.
    • Private payrolls are projected to rise by 140k, with government jobs adding another 20k.
  2. Big Data Indicators and Layoff Tracker:

    • Big Data measures signal a below-normal pace of job creation.
    • The layoff tracker shows a slight increase from previously low levels.
  3. Special Factors Influencing Job Creation:

    • Seasonal factors may overestimate job creation during the spring hiring season in a tight labor market.
    • The longer-than-usual May payroll month is expected to provide a boost.
  4. Wage Growth:

    • A forecasted 0.25% increase in average hourly earnings.
    • Calendar effects are anticipated to drag the growth rate by approximately 2 basis points, resulting in a year-on-year rate of 3.87%, down by 5 basis points.
  5. Unemployment and Participation Rates:

    • The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.9%.
    • The labor force participation rate is forecasted to hold at 62.7%, matching its pre-pandemic demographic trend.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs anticipates a modest increase in May payrolls, reflecting a slower pace of job creation amidst a tight labor market and seasonal adjustments. Wage growth is expected to remain subdued, with the unemployment rate and participation rate holding steady. 

Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary

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